Statistics

Forthis assignment you are asked to read an article from the New York Times newspaper that discusses the positive test rate for the virus that causes COVID-19. Here’s the citation of the article; the link is provided as the end of these instructions.

Goldstein, J., & Mckinley, J. (2020, Nov 23). The city and the state do coronavirus math differently. why it matters.: [foreign desk]. New York Times

After you read the article, please answer the following questions, using your own words. I am not looking for textbook phrases or word-for-word quotation, but something that indicates you understood the article. It may help you to know that Andrew Cuomo is the governor of New York State, while Bill de Blasio is the mayor of New York City, located within New York State, and the largest city (by population) in the U.S.

1. When the article was written, there were two statistics, both percentages, given for the positive corona virus test rate in New York City. One statistic was calculated by the state and one was calculated by the city. What were these percentages and did the state or the city calculate the lower rate?

2. Give two reasons stated by the article that the two statistics are different.

3. According to the article, what is the significance of a 3% positive test rate?

The City and the State Do Coronavirus Math
Differently. Why It Matters.
Goldstein, Joseph; Mckinley, Jesse . New York Times , Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y. [New

York, N.Y]23 Nov 2020: A.6.

ProQuest document link

FULL TEXT
The city and state use different approaches for calculations. That has led to confusion and has a big impact on

which restrictions are adopted.

Three percent.

It is the most important number in New York City right now, a critical threshold that triggers restrictions by state

and local governments in response to the coronavirus. The mayor of New York shut down public schools at 3

percent. The governor says that a sustained 3 percent level in the city would result in banning indoor dining,

closing gyms and hair salons, and placing a 25-person cap on attendance at houses of worship even as the

holidays approach.

But as important as that number is, it seems the city and the state can’t agree on whether we’re there yet.

That’s the situation that has played out over the past week, with Mayor Bill de Blasio saying 3 percent has been

breached, while Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said it is well below that. Each relies on his own statistics, which are

compiled and reported in different ways, varying even on which tests to include in the calculation.

The discrepancy can be striking: On Sunday, for instance, the city said its seven-day average was 3.09 percent. Mr.

Cuomo’s office, however, put the city’s rate at more than half a point lower, at 2.54 percent.

In one way, of course, not all numbers are equal, as Mr. Cuomo’s statistics from the state Department of Health

govern a wider array of activities and businesses in regions all across New York. But Mr. Cuomo granted local

school districts the right to set their own parameters for school shutdowns, and Mr. de Blasio, who controls the

school system, set 3 percent as that level.

And so, in the end, it was the city’s numbers that caused the temporary pause of in-person learning in the nation’s

largest school system.

Why can’t they agree on whether we are at 3 percent?

The cause of the discrepancy lies in both the tests that are included and the time frame in which statistics are

reported, leading to the mayor and the governor giving different numbers each day.

It is the latest discordant message between two rivals that has played out over the entire pandemic, adding a level

of dysfunction and confusion to the response.

On Sunday, Mr. Cuomo suggested the city’s calculation of its positive rate was “confusing and unnecessary,” and

also “irrelevant” because the state numbers would govern any broader

restrictions.

The state and city health departments do, in fact, have several different accounting rules for tracking the spread of

the virus. The state treats a new case as arising on the day the test results came in. The city dates each new case

to the day the sample was provided.

So if an infected person goes to a clinic to have his nose swabbed on Monday, that sample is often delivered to a

laboratory where it is tested. If those results are reported to the health authorities on Wednesday, the state and

city would record it differently. The state would include it with Wednesday’s tally of new cases, while the city would

add it to Monday’s column.

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The 3 percent threshold is based on a seven-day rolling average. It matters what day a new case is registered.

Another factor contributes to the discrepancy as well, which has received little attention so far: antigen tests. New

York State includes the tests in its official metrics. But while they are generally faster, they are less likely to detect

the infection in people with a low viral load.

New York City, however, does not include antigen tests, preferring a more sensitive one known as a polymerase

chain reaction test. The city only includes P.C.R. tests performed in a laboratory in its count. That’s why the state —

which is counting both antigen and P.C.R. tests — may have a higher tally for overall cases in New York City but a

lower percentage of positives.

P.C.R. tests in a laboratory have long been considered the gold standard because they are unlikely to miss any

infections. But some public health experts say that much of the P.C.R. testing for coronavirus is too sensitive,

resulting in coronavirus diagnoses for people who are carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus and are

probably not contagious.

Antigen tests, which can be performed rapidly and cheaply, detect bits of coronavirus proteins. But they are more

likely to miss cases, including people recently infected who have lower viral loads.

The difference in sensitivity between the two types of tests can contribute to a gap in the positivity rates between

the city and state.

In fact, the positivity rate of the same group of people — in this case, New York City residents — can vary depending

on how many receive antigen tests versus traditional P.C.R. tests. Antigen tests can miss some cases when the

amount of virus is still low.

Say 1,000 people get tested. Let’s assume all have a P.C.R. test, and that 30 tests are positive, for a positivity rate

of 3 percent. Now let’s assume half get an antigen test and half get a P.C.R. test. Maybe only 25 tests come back

positive, for a positivity rate of 2.5 percent.

“We believe in our number and our methodology,” said Bill Neidhardt, the mayor’s spokesman, before alluding to

the mayor’s decision on Wednesday to declare the 3 percent threshold reached, rather than adopt the state’s

metric in a last-minute bid to keep schools open.

“Switching up a public health standard in the middle of the morning is not a good idea for clarity and public

confidence,” he said.

Gary Holmes, a spokesman for the state Health Department, said that the state reported both types of tests “to

provide the clearest possible picture of individuals diagnosed with Covid in a given time period.” A positive result

on either a P.C.R. or an antigen test require an individual to quarantine.

On Sunday, Mr. Cuomo said the state does “hundreds of thousands of antigen tests per week,” noting frequent

tests of nursing home workers, adding that excluding those would “significantly reduce the database.” Such

speedy results may also be in high demand in coming weeks as people seek tests before the holidays, the

governor’s office said. “It’s nice to know quickly,” Mr. Cuomo said.

There are other differences in how the city and state calculate the positivity rate that also help explain why the

city’s rate is higher.

For instance, if a person tests negative repeatedly within a seven-day period, the city counts only a single test

when calculating the positivity rate. But the state includes all negative tests from different days in its calculation.

On the other hand, when someone tests positive repeatedly, the city includes each positive test when calculating

the positivity rate. The state, however, only counts the first positive test and ignores subsequent ones.

That last variable — whether repeated positives are counted or not — can have a big effect on the positivity rate.

Gareth Rhodes, a member of Mr. Cuomo’s coronavirus task force, estimated that about 15 or 20 percent of positive

P.C.R. tests currently emerging from New York City were for someone who tested positive in the past.

Why does it matter?

If New York City hits 3 percent based on the state’s metrics, the governor has suggested it will enter into a so-

called “orange zone,” the middle of three color-coded restrictions that the governor enacted in early October.

Under the governor’s plan, a so-called “red zone” is subject to the toughest restrictions, with bans on mass

gatherings, indoor dining, and in-person learning. Nonessential businesses would close and religious services

would be limited to 25 percent capacity of houses of worship or 10 people, whichever number is lower.

“Orange zones” — which the governor says the city is in danger of falling into — allow slightly large gatherings and

outdoor dining, but schools shut down as do “high-risk” nonessential businesses like barbers and gyms.

Precautionary zones — appropriately yellow — allow in-person classes but ramp up testing, and put some less

stringent caps on dining and gatherings.

Four of the city’s five boroughs — Queens, the Bronx, Brooklyn and Staten Island — already have yellow zones, and

Mr. Cuomo said Upper Manhattan may have one imposed later this week. Staten Island may also face intensifying

restrictions.

These zones are re-evaluated after two weeks, and the metrics for entering and exiting each of these zones involve

a complicated mix of data and a dash of deliberation: Restrictions can be modified on “expert advisement,” the

state says, and include determinations based on local hospitalization rates, or whether outbreaks can be traced to

a single source (like a prison, gathering or group residence).

Other factors can include “compliance and enforcement actions taken by local government” as well as more vague

standards like “community cooperation to reduce viral spread.”

Which, of course, could render a mere number — such as 3 percent — less important.

Can the city act on its own?

Based on its metrics, New York City has already hit the 3 percent mark. Yet it may still be some time before

businesses face any restrictions.

Not only do state statistics put the city’s seven-day rolling average below that number, but New York City must

breach that threshold for 10 consecutive days before the city would enter the “orange zone.”

Technically, the city could use several workarounds to target businesses it decides are contributing to virus

spread. For example, the city’s Department of Health could try to close any restaurant by declaring it a public

health threat.

But the governor has broad emergency powers over a range of businesses, trumping Mr. de Blasio. At news

conferences, the mayor sometimes sounds a resigned note, saying that certain decisions about closures must be

left to the governor.

So, for now, New Yorkers will continue to wait for the city to hit 3 percent … again.

Photograph

A protest of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s decision to close New York City public schools last week, based on the city’s

virus testing rates. (PHOTOGRAPH BY BENJAMIN NORMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES)

DETAILS

Subject: Laboratories; Public health; Shutdowns; Holidays &special occasions; Antigens;

Coronaviruses

Business indexing term: Subject: Shutdowns

Location: New York City New York New York

URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/nyregion/Coronavirus-cases-numbers-

nyc.html

Publication title: New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.

Pages: A.6

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Publication year: 2020

Publication date: Nov 23, 2020

Section: A

Publisher: New York Times Company

Place of publication: New York, N.Y.

Country of publication: United States, New York, N.Y.

Publication subject: General Interest Periodicals–United States

ISSN: 03624331

Source type: Newspapers

Language of publication: English

Document type: News

ProQuest document ID: 2462849968

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Copyright: Copyright New York Times Company Nov 23, 2020

Last updated: 2020-11-23

Database: New York Times

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• The City and the State Do Coronavirus Math Differently. Why It Matters.