case study

Week #1 Case Study – Panera Bread Company

Case Study Questions:

Complete the financing portion of Panera Bread Company’s 2007 forecast financial statements

Include a chart of your financial assumptions.

Develop a

5

year Financial Forecast (both Balance Sheet and Income Statement)

Describe three possible financial forecasting processes. Discuss the benefits and limitations of each three methods. Describe why you chose the approach you used in this case study.

Provide an assessment of the earning quality of Panera Bread in Year 5 of the projected financial statements.

Determine the amount of Free Cash Flow Panera has in Year 5 of the projected financial statements. Discuss the importance of Free Cash Flow, and it’s relationship to overall accounting earnings.

Develop a table of relevant financial ratios for 2007 and Forecast Year 5; discuss the ratios, their change of the forecast period, and the overall performance of Panera Bread in Forecast Year 5.

Given the need for external sources of capital, compare and contrast the advantages and disadvantages of external equity, a long-term note payable, and a short-term line of credit.

Case Study Assumptions:

A 5-year financial forecast worksheet has been provided to you on Blackboard.

Assume all borrowing are a type of debt, no additional equity will be utilized to raise capital

The share repurchase program DOES occur in 2008; and interest expense is equal to 6% of outstanding debt

Sales growth is

25

% for the first two years; then 5% thereafter.

Case Study Analysis Papers grading rubric

15

10

10

10

Grading Criteria	Maximum Points
Completed Panera Bread Company’s 2007 forecast financial statements.	5
Describe three possible financial forecasting processes. Discuss the benefits and limitations of each method. Describe why you chose the approach you used in this case study.				10
Develop a 5 year Financial Forecast (Balance Sheet and Income Statement)	25
Provide an assessment of the earning quality of Panera Bread in 2012 of the projected financial statements.		15
Determine the amount of Free Cash Flow in 2012; discuss the importance of Free Cash Flow and its relationship to overall accounting earnings.
Analysis of financial ratios; including baseline ratios, their change of the forecast periods, and the overall performance in 2012.
Given the need for external sources of capital, compare and contrast the advantages and disadvantages of external equity, a long-term note payable, and a short-term line of credit.
Proper spelling, punctuation, and APA Formatting
Total	100

Export Summary

This document was exported from Numbers. Each table was converted to an Excel worksheet. All other objects on each Numbers sheet were placed on separate worksheets. Please be aware that formula calculations may differ in Excel. Numbers Sheet Name Numbers Table Name

Excel

Worksheet

Name

Title Page

Table 1

Title Page

Exhibit 1

– Income Statement

Table 1 Exhibit 1 – Income Statement

Exhibit 2

– Balance Sheet

Table 1 Exhibit 2 – Balance Sheet

Exhibit 3 – 2

0

07

Forecast

Table 1 Exhibit 3 –

2007

Forecast

Exhibit 4

– Stock

Price

Table 1 Exhibit 4 – Stock Price

Exhibit 5 – Comparables

Table 1 Exhibit 5 – Comparables
Worksheet
Table 1 Worksheet

Title Page

by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail tosales@dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.

This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case “Panera Bread Company” (UVA-F-1575).
This spreadsheet was prepared by Marc Lipson, Associate Professor of Business Administration. Copyright ©	2009
Rev. Jun. 21,	2012

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Exhibit 1 – Income Statement

Exhibit 1

Income Statements

2

(b)

2

5

(

)

,107

,

48 18 50 92

0

			PANERA BREAD COMPANY
	Historic
(n thousands of dollars)
			2003				2004				2005				2006
Number of Bakery Cafés(a)		60	7	41	877	1,027
			Revenue		363,702		479,139		640,275		828,971
		Costs of Goods Sold
			Bakery Café		210,822		288,706		399,760		542,916
			Dough Sold to Franchisees		54,967		65,627		75,036	85,6		18
			Depreciation		18,304		25,298		33,011		44,166
	General and Administrative	31,		50		38,735		50,240		63,502
315,	59		418,366		558,047		736,202
		Operating Profit	EBIT			48		60,773		82,228			92	769
		Interest Expense
		Pretax Profit		48,059		60,755		82,178		92,677
		Tax		17,629		22,175		29,995		33,827
		Net Income	30,	43		38,580		52,183		58,850
(a) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafés
(b) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses
	Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 2003–06.

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Exhibit 2 – Balance Sheet

Exhibit 2

PANERA BREAD COMPANY

2003 2004 2005 2006

,977

256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609

Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 2003–06.

Historic Balance Sheets
	(in thousands of dollars)
Historic Balance Sheets:
Cash and Short Term Investments	51,421	58,054	60,651	72,122
Accounts Receivable	12,394	17,2	56	25,158	30,919
Inventory	4,350	5,398	7,358	8,714
Prepaid Expenses and Deferred Taxes	3,	887	3,905	9,607	15,863
		Current Assets		72,052	84,	613		102,774		127,618
Property, Plant and Equipment		146,362		201,725		268,809	3	45
		Goodwill and Other Assets		38,421		38,334		66,084		69,014
Total Assets				256,835				324,672				437,667				542,609
Accounts Payable	8,072	5,840	4,422	5,800
Acrued Expenses and Deferred Revenue	37,571	49,865	82,443	103,810
		Current Liabilities		45,643		55,705		86,865		109,610
		Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities		13,616		27,604		33,824		35,333
Total Liabilities		59,259		83,309	120,	689		144,943
	Equity		197,576		241,363		316,978		397,666

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Exhibit 3 – 2007 Forecast

Exhibit 1
PANERA BREAD COMPANY

(in thousands of dollars)

Revenue

Costs of Goods Sold

Bakery Café

Dough Sold to Franchisees

Depreciation

Operating Profit (EBIT)

Interest Expense

Pretax Profit

Tax

Net Income

Current Assets

Goodwill and Other Assets

Current Liabilities

Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities

2007 Operating Forecast(a)
Number of Bakery-Cafes(b)	1,230
	1,050,000
	738,000
	86,000
	60,000
General and Administrative (c)		78,000
	962,000
	88,000
	150
	87,850
	31,500
	56,350
	150,000
	Property, Plant, and Equipment		430,000
	110,000
	Total Assets		690,000
	130,000
	45,000
	Total Liabilities		175,000
(a) Case writer estimate based on history and third-quarter results.
(b) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafés
(c) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses

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Exhibit 4 – Stock Price

Panera Stock Price

and

Volume Panera Stock Price Volume
6/1/06 65.5

3 277.1 6/2/06 65.95 358.8 6/5/06 64.62 432.6 6/6/06

64.62

745.8 6/7/06 62.47 1373.1 6/8/06 62.62 794.2 6/9/06 63.04 549 6/12/06 63.18 714.9 6/13/06 62.1

4 584.1 6/14/06 61.7 427.5 6/15/06 63.83 428

.8 6/16/06 63.99 264.9 6/19/06 63.41 5

55.2 6/20/06 63.42 192.4 6/21/06 64.29 369.2 6/22/06 66.57 1245.8 6/23/06 66.73 396.9 6/26/06 67.5 491.9 6/27/06 67.03 509.5 6/28/06 65.58 748.5 6/29/06 66.8

7 382.8 6/30/06 67.2

4 351.7 7/3/06 66.9

4 86.2 7/4/06

66.94 0
7/5/06 66.37 328.3 7/6/06

65.5

417.9 7/7/06 64.15 359.6 7/10/06 64.83 312.2 7/11/06 64.44 529

.1 7/12/06

63.83

476.9 7/13/06 61.25 938.2 7/14/06

62.1

924.9 7/17/06 60.71 1229.8 7/18/06 59.41 861.3 7/19/06 60.01 729.7 7/20/06 58.25 1124.5 7/21/06 57.6

9 770.5 7/24/06 59.56 906 7/25/06 59.27 754.8 7/26/06 51.9

3 6267.6 7/27/06 51.5

3 1469 7/28/06 52.59 1053.8 7/31/06 52.31 6

60.6 8/1/06 51.45 630.9 8/2/06 51.54 684.5 8/3/06 51.56 673.5 8/4/06

51.5

659.8 8/7/06 50.61 465.2 8/8/06 50.1 467 8/9/06 46.85 1755.4 8/10/06 48.08 1258.8 8/11/06 47.9

5 426.1 8/14/06 48.26 413.2 8/15/06 49.81 9

62.2 8/16/06 51.96 890.7 8/17/06 53.46 916.1 8/18/06 52.4 641.8 8/21/06 51.39 572.7 8/22/06 51.62 532.9 8/23/06 51.15 531.5 8/24/06 50.12 8

56.1 8/25/06 49.16 578.7 8/28/06 50.29 701 8/29/06

51.9

862.2 8/30/06 53.6 901.5 8/31/06

51.9

1038.7 9/1/06 52.88 491.3 9/4/06

52.88 0
9/5/06 54.75 1403.2 9/6/06 52.03 1

591.5 9/7/06 51.52 1200.3 9/8/06 52.72 573.6 9/11/06 53.35 748.2 9/12/06 57.67 2127.9 9/13/06 56.8

9 857.3 9/14/06 57.46 690.3 9/15/06 58.9 724 9/18/06 58.22 926.8 9/19/06 58.09 651.8 9/20/06

60.6

946 9/21/06 60.08

887
9/22/06 59.03 633.9 9/25/06 60.11 757.9 9/26/06

60.11

504 9/27/06 59.57 508.9 9/28/06 59.1 6

55.7 9/29/06

58.25

407.7 10/2/06 58.17 642.5 10/3/06 58.35 774.9 10/4/06 64.75 3

400

.1 10/5/06 65.68 1166 10/6/06 64.41 730.9 10/9/06 66.02 595.9 10/10/06 65.19 941.8 10/11/06 64.22 813.9 10/12/06

67.2

1398.8 10/13/06

66.8

849.3 10/16/06

67.03 769
10/17/06 66.47 571.3 10/18/06

66.9

651.1 10/19/06

65.58

725.5 10/20/06 64.79 620 10/23/06 66.01 801.8 10/24/06 68.7 1196 10/25/06

64.41

4101.2 10/26/06 64.33 874.8 10/27/06 62.03 1089.2 10/30/06 61.98 1411.6 10/31/06 61.8 923.5 11/1/06 61.27 11

57.2 11/2/06 60.66 974.1 11/3/06 59.15 1138.8 11/6/06 60.83 813.7 11/7/06 60.64 435.4 11/8/06 61.47 584.9 11/9/06 59.99

529
11/10/06 60.47 499.4 11/13/06 59.52 758.6 11/14/06 60.58 581.3 11/15/06 61.97 649.2 11/16/06 61.82 508.5 11/17/06 61.58 576.1 11/20/06 61.26 453.1 11/21/06 60.25 1248 11/22/06 60.87 568.3 11/23/06

60.87 0
11/24/06 60.97 115.9 11/27/06

59

661.7 11/28/06 58.08 968.6 11/29/06

57.6

1158.9 11/30/06 57.45 685.2 12/1/06 56.9 1330.7 12/4/06 58.68 632.9 12/5/06 58.79 786 12/6/06 56.94 3162 12/7/06 56.7 15

56.3 12/8/06

56.89

1074.5 12/11/06 56.74

689
12/12/06 55.63 870 12/13/06

55.7

777.1 12/14/06 55.68 487.4 12/15/06 55.9

7 682 12/18/06

55.9

518

.6 12/19/06 55.52 505.9 12/20/06 56.08 452.9 12/21/06 55.77 602.9 12/22/06 55.82 272.7 12/25/06

55.82 0
12/26/06 55.47 370.7 12/27/06

56.1

365.2 12/28/06 56.47 682.4 12/29/06 55.91 429.4 1/1/07

55.91 0
1/2/07

55.91 0
1/3/07 56.01 842.6 1/4/07 56.75 847.9 1/5/07 55.95 658.2 1/8/07 56.15 554.8 1/9/07 57.27 818.5 1/10/07 56.79 585.9 1/11/07 58.4 732.9 1/12/07 57.92 567.5 1/15/07

57.92 0
1/16/07 58.54 394.6 1/17/07 57.63 637

.1 1/18/07 56.38 604.4 1/19/07 55.67

613
1/22/07

55.2

622.9 1/23/07 54.87 376.8 1/24/07 55.11 446.8 1/25/07 54.5 620.6 1/26/07 53.85 935.5 1/29/07 53.15 1184.3 1/30/07 54.58 1146.6 1/31/07 58.96 2966.4 2/1/07 57.93 1180.9 2/2/07 58.34 443.3 2/5/07

57.93

359.5 2/6/07 58.55 340.6 2/7/07 58.57 839.6 2/8/07 58.12 752.1 2/9/07 57.4101 1294 2/12/07

57.2

1149.1 2/13/07

58.4

845.5 2/14/07 58.92 512.4 2/15/07 59.47 592.2 2/16/07 59.91 1113.5 2/19/07

59.91 0
2/20/07 61.11 1330.1 2/21/07

61.97

980.9 2/22/07

62.2

919.3 2/23/07 62.63 667.7 2/26/07 62.23 705.1 2/27/07

60

1076.3 2/28/07 61.23 1187.7 3/1/07 60.07 693.9 3/2/07

59.1

533.8 3/5/07 58.13 746.4 3/6/07 57.84 1021.5 3/7/07 58.48 1541.1 3/8/07 59.29 1123.8 3/9/07 59.95 728.5 3/12/07 60.57 444.8 3/13/07 59.46 493.1 3/14/07 59.84 1008.3 3/15/07 59.74 381.1 3/16/07

59.1

430.4 3/19/07 59.32 425.3 3/20/07 59.35 378.9 3/21/07 60.42 464.3 3/22/07 61.16 404.4 3/23/07 61.02 231.1 3/26/07 60.77

231.1
3/27/07

59.95 340.6
3/28/07 58.78 710.6 3/29/07 58.76 392.8 3/30/07 59.06 336.2 4/2/07 59.09 438.7 4/3/07 60.22 8

42.8 4/4/07 57.75 2747.4 4/5/07 57.34 985 4/6/07

57.34 0
4/9/07 56.39 927.3 4/10/07

56.38

920.8 4/11/07 55.73 894.7 4/12/07 55.64 826.1 4/13/07 56.03 724.8 4/16/07 56.23 835.3 4/17/07 55.79 594.9 4/18/07 56.05 469.8 4/19/07 55.83 299.7 4/20/07 56.14 614 4/23/07 56.25 590.9 4/24/07

55.7

933.9 4/25/07 59.13 2897.3 4/26/07

57.45

1478 4/27/07

56.8

820.8 4/30/07 55.69 510.7 5/1/07

56.1

787.1 5/2/07

56.94

903.4 5/3/07 56.24 448.8 5/4/07

56.24

389.1 5/7/07

55.95 554.8
5/8/07

56.24

429.9 5/9/07

56.3

379.6 5/10/07

55.52

338.9 5/11/07

56.05

292.6 5/14/07 55.65 466.7 5/15/07 54.94 648.5 5/16/07 55.43 484 5/17/07 54.99 348.8 5/18/07 55.15 842.2 5/21/07 55.59 505.8 5/22/07 56.6

2 522.5 5/23/07 56.92 590.4 5/24/07 56.97 597.8 5/25/07 56.67

417.9
5/28/07

56.67 0
5/29/07

56

555.9 5/30/07

56.6

260.7 5/31/07 56.37 256.6 6/1/07 56.73 380 6/4/07 57.59 445.2 6/5/07 58.32 849.5 6/6/07 50.28 5000 6/7/07 48.78 2703.2 6/8/07 49.01 18

47.2 6/11/07 47.85 1554.6 6/12/07 47.64 858.8 6/13/07 48.33 864.5 6/14/07 48.29 715.7 6/15/07 47.98 626.5 6/18/07 47.82 708 6/19/07 47.15 677.2 6/20/07 47.04 719.2 6/21/07 46.41 1347.1 6/22/07 46.69 1218.7 6/25/07 46.35 963.3 6/26/07 46.29 751.2 6/27/07 46.65 755.5 6/28/07 46.02

469.8
6/29/07 46.06 570.8 7/2/07

46.02

686.5 7/3/07 47.55 825.5 7/4/07

47.55 0
7/5/07 47.68 1537.5 7/6/07

47.9

632.7 7/9/07 47.23 828.6 7/10/07 47.48 663.7 7/11/07 46.7 689.7 7/12/07 46.87 648.6 7/13/07 46.49 553.2 7/16/07 47.26 819.1 7/17/07 46.83 451 7/18/07 46.37 396.1 7/19/07 46.45 395.7 7/20/07 46.1 542.2 7/23/07 46.9 769.4 7/24/07 45.9799 1043.5 7/25/07 41.81 2989.1 7/26/07 40.58 17

40.8 7/27/07 39.79 1365.4 7/30/07 41.38 1548.2 7/31/07 40.64 605.6 8/1/07 39.8 1508.9 8/2/07

41

807.8 8/3/07 41.58 1170.3 8/6/07 43.04 1069.2 8/7/07 45.56 1362.2 8/8/07 47.19 2828 8/9/07

46.37

2177 8/10/07 43.31 1881.6 8/13/07 44.1 910.5 8/14/07 44.36 1162.6 8/15/07 43.54 844.6 8/16/07 43.91

1158.9
8/17/07 45.23 1219.8 8/20/07

45

764.9 8/21/07 44.65 363.8 8/22/07 45.04 473.6 8/23/07 44.39 567.7 8/24/07 44.59

518
8/27/07 43.69 420.3 8/28/07

42.8

639.9 8/29/07 43.21

400
8/30/07 42.96

591.5
8/31/07 43.74 447.8 9/3/07

43.74 0
9/4/07 43.59 677.5 9/5/07 43.24 627.6 9/6/07 44.46 650.5 9/7/07 44.13 607.4 9/10/07 43.1 548.6 9/11/07 43.4 302.6 9/12/07 43.08 373.9 9/13/07 43.93 334.8 9/14/07 44.53 262.7 9/17/07 43.87 308.8 9/18/07

44.39

639.4 9/19/07 44.48 733.3 9/20/07 43.26 437.1 9/21/07 43.28 339.4 9/24/07

43

410.9 9/25/07 40.59 1049.7 9/26/07 41.36 845.1 9/27/07 41.56

428
9/28/07

40.8

537.6 10/1/07 42.19 1079.8 10/2/07 43.12 786.2 10/3/07 46.57 2384 10/4/07 47.27 1306.2 10/5/07 48.11 657.1 10/8/07 47.62 410.4 10/9/07 48.19 378.5 10/10/07 48.95 1009.4 10/11/07 48.66 904.5 10/12/07 47.77 536.2 10/15/07 47.57 714.3 10/16/07 48.12 483.7 10/17/07 48.57 620.7 10/18/07

47.82

710.9 10/19/07

46.85

947.1 10/22/07

47.2

770.6 10/23/07 48.81 910.7 10/24/07 43.61 2796.6 10/25/07 41.66 1437 10/26/07 41.05 955.7 10/29/07 41.01 951.2 10/30/07 40.73 1011.1 10/31/07 40.99 809.6 11/1/07 39.28 840.5 11/2/07 38.21 1001.6 11/5/07 37.89 752.5 11/6/07 37.25 939.9 11/7/07 37.19 675.2 11/8/07 37.4799

637
11/9/07 36.62 527 11/12/07 36.96 599.4 11/13/07 37.85 486.1 11/14/07 37.14 532.6 11/15/07 37.11 388.3 11/16/07 37.01 617.6 11/19/07 35.91 494 11/20/07 34.64 681.3 11/21/07 34.27 857.5 11/22/07

34.27 0
11/23/07 35.09 505.7 11/26/07 35.29 795.8 11/27/07 35.51 664.2 11/28/07 38.01 1259.9 11/29/07 39.47 784.8 11/30/07 40.07 1270.7

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Panera Stock Price
Panera Stock Price

6/1/06 6/2/06 6/5/06 6/6/06 6/7/06 6/8/06 6/9/06 6/12/06 6/13/06 6/14/06 6/15/06 6/16/06 6/19/06 6/20/06 6/21/06 6/22/06 6/23/06 6/26/06 6/27/06 6/28/06 6/29/06 6/30/06 7/3/06 7/4/06 7/5/06 7/6/06 7/7/06 7/10/06 7/11/06 7/12/06 7/13/06 7/14/06 7/17/06 7/18/06 7/19/06 7/20/06 7/21/06 7/24/06 7/25/06 7/26/06 7/27/06 7/28/06 7/31/06 8/1/06 8/2/06 8/3/06 8/4/06 8/7/06 8/8/06 8/9/06 8/10/06 8/11/06 8/14/06 8/15/06 8/16/06 8/17/06 8/18/06 8/21/06 8/22/06 8/23/06 8/24/06 8/25/06 8/28/06 8/29/06 8/30/06 8/31/06 9/1/06 9/4/06 9/5/06 9/6/06 9/7/06 9/8/06 9/11/06 9/12/06 9/13/06 9/14/06 9/15/06 9/18/06 9/19/06 9/20/06 9/21/06 9/22/06 9/25/06 9/26/06 9/27/06 9/28/06 9/29/06 10/2/06 10/3/06 10/4/06 10/5/06 10/6/06 10/9/06 10/10/06 10/11/06 10/12/06 10/13/06 10/16/06 10/17/06 10/18/06 10/19/06 10/20/06 10/23/06 10/24/06 10/25/06 10/26/06 10/27/06 10/30/06 10/31/06 11/1/06 11/2/06 11/3/06 11/6/06 11/7/06 11/8/06 11/9/06 11/10/06 11/13/06 11/14/06 11/15/06 11/16/06 11/17/06 11/20/06 11/21/06 11/22/06 11/23/06 11/24/06 11/27/06 11/28/06 11/29/06 11/30/06 12/1/06 12/4/06 12/5/06 12/6/06 12/7/06 12/8/06 12/11/06 12/12/06 12/13/06 12/14/06 12/15/06 12/18/06 12/19/06 12/20/06 12/21/06 12/22/06 12/25/06 12/26/06 12/27/06 12/28/06 12/29/06 1/1/07 1/2/07 1/3/07 1/4/07 1/5/07 1/8/07 1/9/07 1/10/07 1/11/07 1/12/07 1/15/07 1/16/07 1/17/07 1/18/07 1/19/07 1/22/07 1/23/07 1/24/07 1/25/07 1/26/07 1/29/07 1/30/07 1/31/07 2/1/07 2/2/07 2/5/07 2/6/07 2/7/07 2/8/07 2/9/07 2/12/07 2/13/07 2/14/07 2/15/07 2/16/07 2/19/07 2/20/07 2/21/07 2/22/07 2/23/07 2/26/07 2/27/07 2/28/07 3/1/07 3/2/07 3/5/07 3/6/07 3/7/07 3/8/07 3/9/07 3/12/07 3/13/07 3/14/07 3/15/07 3/16/07 3/19/07 3/20/07 3/21/07 3/22/07 3/23/07 3/26/07 3/27/07 3/28/07 3/29/07 3/30/07 4/2/07 4/3/07 4/4/07 4/5/07 4/6/07 4/9/07 4/10/07 4/11/07 4/12/07 4/13/07 4/16/07 4/17/07 4/18/07 4/19/07 4/20/07 4/23/07 4/24/07 4/25/07 4/26/07 4/27/07 4/30/07 5/1/07 5/2/07 5/3/07 5/4/07 5/7/07 5/8/07 5/9/07 5/10/07 5/11/07 5/14/07 5/15/07 5/16/07 5/17/07 5/18/07 5/21/07 5/22/07 5/23/07 5/24/07 5/25/07 5/28/07 5/29/07 5/30/07 5/31/07 6/1/07 6/4/07 6/5/07 6/6/07 6/7/07 6/8/07 6/11/07 6/12/07 6/13/07 6/14/07 6/15/07 6/18/07 6/19/07 6/20/07 6/21/07 6/22/07 6/25/07 6/26/07 6/27/07 6/28/07 6/29/07 7/2/07 7/3/07 7/4/07 7/5/07 7/6/07 7/9/07 7/10/07 7/11/07 7/12/07 7/13/07 7/16/07 7/17/07 7/18/07 7/19/07 7/20/07 7/23/07 7/24/07 7/25/07 7/26/07 7/27/07 7/30/07 7/31/07 8/1/07 8/2/07 8/3/07 8/6/07 8/7/07 8/8/07 8/9/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/14/07 8/15/07 8/16/07 8/17/07 8/20/07 8/21/07 8/22/07 8/23/07 8/24/07 8/27/07 8/28/07 8/29/07 8/30/07 8/31/07 9/3/07 9/4/07 9/5/07 9/6/07 9/7/07 9/10/07 9/11/07 9/12/07 9/13/07 9/14/07 9/17/07 9/18/07 9/19/07 9/20/07 9/21/07 9/24/07 9/25/07 9/26/07 9/27/07 9/28/07 10/1/07 10/2/07 10/3/07 10/4/07 10/5/07 10/8/07 10/9/07 10/10/07 10/11/07 10/12/07 10/15/07 10/16/07 10/17/07 10/18/07 10/19/07 10/22/07 10/23/07 10/24/07 10/25/07 10/26/07 10/29/07 10/30/07 10/31/07 11/1/07 11/2/07 11/5/07 11/6/07 11/7/07 11/8/07 11/9/07 11/12/07 11/13/07 11/14/07 11/15/07 11/16/07 11/19/07 11/20/07 11/21/07 11/22/07 11/23/07 11/26/07 11/27/07 11/28/07 11/29/07 11/30/07 65.530000 65.950000 64.620000 64.620000 62.470000 62.620000 63.040000 63.180000 62.140000 61.700000 63.830000 63.990000 63.410000 63.420000 64.290000 66.570000 66.730000 67.500000 67.030000 65.580000 66.870000 67.240000 66.940000 66.940000 66.370000 65.500000 64.150000 64.830000 64.440000 63.830000 61.250000 62.100000 60.710000 59.410000 60.010000 58.250000 57.690000 59.560000 59.270000 51.930000 51.530000 52.590000 52.310000 51.450000 51.540000 51.560000 51.500000 50.610000 50.100000 46.850000 48.080000 47.950000 48.260000 49.810000 51.960000 53.460000 52.400000 51.390000 51.620000 51.150000 50.120000 49.160000 50.290000 51.900000 53.600000 51.900000 52.880000 52.880000 54.750000 52.030000 51.520000 52.720000 53.350000 57.670000 56.890000 57.460000 58.900000 58.220000 58.090000 60.600000 60.080000 59.030000 60.110000 60.110000 59.570000 59.100000 58.250000 58.170000 58.350000 64.750000 65.680000 64.410000 66.020000 65.1900 00 64.220000 67.200000 66.800000 67.030000 66.470000 66.900000 65.580000 64.790000 66.010000 68.700000 64.410000 64.330000 62.030000 61.980000 61.800000 61.270000 60.660000 59.150000 60.830000 60.640000 61.470000 59.990000 60.470000 59.520000 60.580000 61.970000 61.820000 61.580000 61.260000 60.250000 60.870000 60.870000 60.970000 59.000000 58.080000 57.600000 57.450000 56.900000 58.680000 58.790000 56.940000 56.700000 56.890000 56.740000 55.630000 55.700000 55.680000 55.970000 55.900000 55.520000 56.080000 55.770000 55.820000 55.820000 55.470000 56.100000 56.470000 55.910000 55.910000 55.910000 56.010000 56.750000 55.950000 56.150000 57.270000 56.790000 58.400000 57.920000 57.920000 58.540000 57.630000 56.380000 55.670000 55.200000 54.870000 55.110000 54.500000 53.850000 53.150000 54.580000 58.960000 57.930000 58.340000 57.930000 58.550000 58.570000 58.120000 57.410100 57.200000 58.400000 58.920000 59.470000 59.910000 59.910000 61.110000 61.970000 62.200000 62.630000 62.230000 60.000000 61.230000 60.070000 59.100000 58.130000 57.840000 58.480000 59.290000 59.950000 60.570000 59.460000 59.840000 59.740000 59.100000 59.320000 59.350000 60.420000 61.160000 61.020000 60.770000 59.950000 58.780000 58.760000 59.060000 59.090000 60.220000 57.750000 57.340000 57.340000 56.390000 56.380000 55.730000 55.640000 56.030000 56.230000 55.790000 56.050000 55.830000 56.140000 56.250000 55.700000 59.130000 57.450000 56.8000 00 55.690000 56.100000 56.940000 56.240000 56.240000 55.950000 56.240000 56.300000 55.520000 56.050000 55.650000 54.940000 55.430000 54.990000 55.150000 55.590000 56.620000 56.920000 56.970000 56.670000 56.670000 56.000000 56.600000 56.370000 56.730000 57.590000 58.320000 50.280000 48.780000 49.010000 47.850000 47.640000 48.330000 48.290000 47.980000 47.820000 47.150000 47.040000 46.410000 46.690000 46.350000 46.290000 46.650000 46.020000 46.060000 46.020000 47.550000 47.550000 47.680000 47.900000 47.230000 47.480000 46.700000 46.870000 46.490000 47.260000 46.830000 46.370000 46.450000 46.100000 46.900000 45.979900 41.810000 40.580000 39.790000 41.380000 40.640000 39.800000 41.000000 41.580000 43.040000 45.560000 47.190000 46.370000 43.310000 44.100000 44.360000 43.540000 43.910000 45.230000 45.000000 44.650000 45.040000 44.390000 44.590000 43.690000 42.800000 43.210000 42.960000 43.740000 43.740000 43.590000 43.240000 44.460000 44.130000 43.100000 43.400000 43.080000 43.930000 44.530000 43.870000 44.390000 44.480000 43.260000 43.280000 43.000000 40.590000 41.360000 41.560000 40.800000 42.190000 43.120000 46.570000 47.270000 48.110000 47.620000 48.190000 48.950000 48.660000 47.770000 47.570000 48.120000 48.570000 47.820000 46.850000 47.200000 48.810000 43.610000 41.660000 41.050000 41.010000 40.730000 40.990000 39.280000 38.210000 37.890000 37.250000 37.190000 37.479900 36.620000 36.960000 37.850000 37.140000 37.110000 37.010000 35.910000 34.640000 34.270000 34.270000 35.090000 35.290000 35.510000 38.010000 39.470000 40.070000

Exhibit 5 – Comparables

Exhibit 4

PANERA BREAD COMPANY

Revenue EBIT

Price

0

0

Data on Comparable Firm Capital Structure
(numbers in thousands except for prices)
Estimates for Year-End 2007	11/30/2007
LT	Debt	Shares
Quick Service Restaurants
McDonald’s Corp	22,786,60		0	3,879,000	8,174,500	56.32	1,165,300
Wendy’s Group Inc.	1,263,717	19,900	739,333	8.10	28,884
Burger King Holdings Inc.	2,234,000	290,000	943,000	25.90	135,000
Domino’s Pizza, Inc.	1,462,870	193,910	1,720,083	13.86	59,665
Jack in the box Inc.	2,513,431	216,996	433,303	29.95	59,736
Casual Dining
Darden Restaurants Inc.	5,567,100	574,400	491,600	38.25	141,400
Ruby Tuesday Inc.	1,410,227	154,855	514,338	13.11	53,240
PF Chang’s China Bistro Inc.	1,084,193	53,312	191,195	25.59	24,152
The Cheesecake Factory Inc.	1,511,577	110,803	175,000	23.29	69,152
California Pizza Kitchen Inc.	632,884	21,517	15.91	28,358
Fast Casual
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.	1,085,782	113,706	133.15	32,805
Starbucks Corp.	9,411,497	1,053,945	550,000	23.39	727,600
Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.	329,652	28,518	12,585	28.91	17,657
Data sources: Investex, Onesource, Yahoo! Finance, and individual firm 10-K filings.

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Worksheet

Historic Forecast
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2009

2012

Revenue 363,702 479,139 640,275 828,971 1,050,000

Costs of Goods Sold

Bakery Café 210,822 288,706 399,760 542,916 738,000
Dough Sold to Franchisees 54,967 65,627 75,036

86,000

Depreciation 18,304 25,298 33,011 44,166 60,000
General and Administrative

38,735 50,240 63,502 78,000

418,366 558,047 736,202 962,000

Operating Profit

60,773 82,228

88,000

Interest Expense 48 18 50 92 150
Pretax Profit 48,059 60,755 82,178 92,677 87,850
Tax 17,629 22,175 29,995 33,827 31,500
Net Income

38,580 52,183 58,850 56,350

Current Assets 72,052

102,774 127,618 150,000

Property, Plant, and Equipment 146,362 201,725 268,809

430,000

Goodwill and Other Assets 38,421 38,334 66,084 69,014 110,000
Total Assets 256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609 690,000
Current Liabilities 45,643 55,705 86,865 109,610 130,000
Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities 13,616 27,604 33,824 35,333 45,000
Total Liabilities 59,259 83,309

144,943 175,000

Debt

Equity 197,576 241,363 316,978 397,666

256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Bakery Café

Dough Sold to Franchisees

Depreciation

87% 87%

5.28%

4.29%

36.50% 36.50%

Multiperiod Forecast
2008	2010	2011
85,618
31,502
315,595
48,107	92,769
30,430
84,613
345,977
120,689
Total Liabilities and Equity
Historic Percentage of Sales	Average
57.97%	60.26%	62.44%	65.49%	70.29%	63.29%
15.11%	13.70%	11.72%	10.33%	8.19%	11.81%
5.03%		5.28%	5.16%	5.33%	5.71%	5.30%
General and Administrative (b)	8.66%	8.08%	7.85%	7.66%	7.43%	7.94%
		87%	89%	92%	88%
Current Assets	19.81%	17.66%	16.05%	15.39%	1	4.29%	16.64%
Property, Plant, and Equipment	40.24%	42.10%	41.98%	41.74%	40.95%	41.40%
Goodwill and Other	10.56%	8.00%	10.32%	8.33%	10.48%	9.54%
Current Liabilities	12.55%	11.63%	13.57%	13.22%	12.38%	12.67%
Deferred Rent and Other	3.74%	5.76%	4.26%	4.67%
Tax Rate	36.68%			36.50%	35.86%	36.41%

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