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Bendle, N. T., & Bagga, C. K. (2016). The metrics that marketers muddle. MIT Sloan Management
Review, 57(3), 73-82.

Despite their widely acknowledged importance, some popular marketing metrics are regularly misunderstood and
misused. One major reason for marketing’s diminishing role is the difficulty of meaning its impact: The value marketers
generate is often difficult to quantify. The main goals of this article are to understand how these marketing metrics are
used and understood and to develop ideas to help marketers unmuddle their metrics. The authors conducted surveys
from managers from all functions across the business-to-business and business-to-consumer industries.

 

5 Best Known Marketing Metrics:

–       Market share

–      

Net Promoter Score (NPS)

–      

The Value of a ‘Like’

–      

Consumer Lifetime Value (CLV)

–      

Return on Investment (ROI)

Market Share

Market share is a popular marketing metric. One reason for why manager value market share is that research
from the 1970s suggested a link between market share and ROI; however, the linkage may be less clear: the
studies have found it is often correlational rather than causal. The survey found that there were two ways
managers used market share: as an ultimate objective or as an intermediate measure of success. Increasing
market share is not a meaningful ultimate objective for maximizing shareholder value and stakeholder
management: If the aim is to maximize the returns to shareholders, increased market share offers no benefits
unless it eventually generates profits. In some markets, bigger can be better; however, economies of scale do not
automatically apply all markets.

Unmuddling Market Share:

The authors suggest a simple set of rules for the appropriate use of the market share metric:

–       Managers should not consider market share as the ultimate objective or as a proxy for absolute size.

–       Managers should evaluate it from the competitors’ and consumers’ point of view. If an increase in market
share is not going to get positive feedback from competitors and consumers, then an increase in market share
will not lead to a productive result.

–       Managers should analyze whether market share drives profitability in your industry. Companies with
superior products tend to have high market share and high profitability because product superiority causes both.

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This means that the two metrics are correlated, BUT it does not necessarily mean that increasing market share
will increase profits.

 
Net Promoter Score (NPS)

This metric is used to measure customer loyalty to a firm. Companies among diverse industries have embraced
NPS as a way to monitor their customer service operations while NPS also has been seen as a system that allows
managers to use the scores to shape managerial actions.

One of the advantages of NPS is its simplicity: It is easy for managers and employees to understand the goal of
having more promoters and fewer detractors. However, there are weaknesses: E.g., in the net promoter literature,
a customer’s worth to Apple has been described as the customer’s spending, ignoring the costs associated with
serving the customer. It is also easy to imagine how to increase the net promoter score (such as making
customers happier) while destroying even to-line growth (by slashing prices). Another problem with NPS as a
metric is the classification system: The boundaries between scores of 6 and 7 (detractors and passives) and 8 and
9 (passive and promoters) seem somewhat arbitrary and culturally specific.

Unmuddling NPS:

The value of NPS depends on whether a manager sees it as a metric or as a system. The authors suggest that the
NPS metric cannot change the marketing performance. However, they advise using this metric as a part of a
system employed in evaluating the performance which might lead to a cultural shift within the organization.

 
The Value of a ‘Like’

This metric is used for measuring the social media capital of the company. New approaches are being developed
all the time and they have the potential to aid understanding of how social media creates value. It is measured as
the difference between the average value of customers endorsing the company and the average value of the
customers who are not endorsing the company. The majority of managers link between their social media
spending the value of a ‘like’. However, it does not mean that the cause of the differences in users’ value is
attributable to a company’s social media strategy. And the reason that social media strategy shouldn’t be seen as
the driver of value difference between fans and nonfans is because customers who are social media fans will
differ from nonfans for reasons unrelated to the company’s social media strategy.

Unmuddling the Value of a ‘Like’:

This difference between two groups of consumers does not suggest an effect of online marketing activity or lack
thereof. It should be investigated thoroughly by the managers. If the management is using the revenue to
measure customer value, then this marketing metric does not give a good estimate. However, if the company
does want to understand the impact of social media marketing, they should use randomized control experiments
to derive causal answers.

Consumer Lifetime Value (CLV)

Consumer lifetime value (CLV), which is the present value of cash flows from a customer relationship, can help
managers in decision making related to investment in developing customer relationships, as it is used to measure
the value of the current customer base. If the management is using the customer value in their decision-making
process, then CLV is a useful tool for them.

Unmuddling CLV:

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The authors suggest that CLV calculations should not include the customer acquisition cost and the estimated
CLV should be compared to the estimated acquisition cost to derive conclusions. The bigger the difference
between the estimated CLV and the estimated acquisition cost, the better the acquisition campaign.

Return on Investment (ROI)

Return on investment is a popular and potentially important metric allowing for the comparison of disparate
investments. A critical requirement for calculating ROI is knowing the net profit generated by a specific
investment decision. According to the authors, there is confusion within management over the use of ROI.
However, as ROI is understood across disciplines, it is a powerful metric to communicate across the
organization.

Unmuddling ROI:

The authors advise that if a manager is assessing the financial return on an investment, then ROI is an
appropriate metric and can be calculated by dividing the incremental profits by the investments. Agribusiness
marketing managers who are passionate about establishing the credibility of the value created through marketing
should be thorough in their use of metrics. Most importantly, they should be able to understand the metric, its use
and what it represents.

65

and the global economy
over the next decades, none is more certain and predictable than
population aging. Whereas today the global population aged 60
or over numbers nearly 750 million (more than 10 per cent of the
overall population), by 2050 it is expected to soar to more than
two billion — exceeding 20 per cent of the overall population. Bu

t

despite the hard facts, many business leaders and policymakers
don’t have a good grasp of the realities of population aging.

In our conversations with leaders in both government and
business, we frequently encounter misconceptions about the
topic. Some are the product of erroneous conventional wisdom,
some are rooted in outdated assumptions and perceptions, and

others overlook the extent to which policies and actions can ad-
dress the aging trend.

In this article we will examine seven of these misconcep-
tions and try to set the record straight. Our objective is to illus-
trate how companies and governments can spur growth and
capture economic opportunities by crafting the right response to
population aging.

Myth 1: Emerging economies will balance out the ‘silver tsu-
nami’ of developed economies.
It is widely recognized that the populations of developed econo-
mies are aging. In Japan, more than 30 per cent of the population

From Asia to the A mericas, populations are getting older, and so far,
business and policy leaders have done little to prepare for it.
by Julika Erfurt, Athena Peppes and Mark Purdy Illustration by Dan Page

AND DESTINY:

POPULATION
AGING

VALUE

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66 / Rotman Magazine Spring 2013

is already aged 60 or over, a proportion that is steadily rising.
The United Kingdom now has more people aged 60 or over than
aged 16 or under. Business leaders and policymakers understand
that this trend stems from declining birth rates and a dramatic
increase in life expectancy. However, many mistakenly believe
that the populations of emerging economies are immune to this
trend, and that their large, younger populations will be the sal-
vation of the global economy. For instance, Goldman Sachs
stresses that “young populations and rapidly expanding domes-
tic markets” will turn the BRIC countries into four of the six larg-
est economies by 2030.

In reality, however, the populations of emerging economies,
such as China, Brazil and Mexico are also getting older at a com-
parable pace. In 2010, those aged 60 and over represented 12
per cent of the population in China, 10 per cent in Brazil, and
9 per cent in Mexico; but by 2050, these figures are expected to
increase to 31 per cent, 29 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively.

Even countries with relatively youthful populations appear
to be unable to avoid a similar fate. For example, Iran is expe-
riencing the world’s most rapid decline in birth rates — from a
high of nearly two million births per year between 1985 and 1990
to a current level of around 1.2 million births and a projection
of 700,000 births by 2050. South Korea currently has one the
youngest populations among OECD countries, but will become
the second oldest by 2050.

Of course, there are some countries whose populations will
remain relatively young. For example, in India and South Af-
rica, nearly half the population today is under 25 years old. But
even in those cases, considerable investment will be needed to
convert raw numbers of young people into an employable and
productive workforce that can be mobilized for future economic
advantage.

Business leaders and policymakers in the developed econo-
mies should not expect that relatively younger populations in
emerging economies will provide an automatic customer base
or workforce to replace their aging counterparts in developed
economies. And leaders in emerging economies must also find
ways to sustain the employability and productivity of their aging
populations.

The Reality: Population aging is a global trend that affects many
emerging economies.

The populations of emerging economies such
as China , Bra zil and Mexico are also getting older.

Myth 2: Countries with aging populations face decades of
low growth.
Commentators have been sounding alarms about the dire con-
sequences of an aging population for a long time. According to
them, population aging will inevitably result in economic stag-
nation at best, and decline at worst.

The scenario is indeed an alarming one. Aging populations
increase the financial burden on governments, creating a pen-
sion time bomb and increasing demands on health-care and
elder-care systems. As more people enter retirement, a vicious
cycle of lower growth and higher taxes will arise. With fewer
people in the workforce, disposable incomes will fall, reducing
consumer spending.

In reality, this outcome is not inevitable. Leaders in both
the public and private sectors can help their economies avoid
this fate by taking steps to harness the productive potential of
people who are living healthier lives, not just longer ones. In
practice, this means addressing the incentives and systems
that prevent older people from staying in the workforce, such
as early retirement provisions, or pensions and tax systems
that penalize people who work later in life. In 2006, the UK
government introduced tough age discrimination laws, and in
2011 went one step further to completely abolish the default
retirement age of 65. The UK’s employment relations minister,
Ed Davey, explained in support of the move that “retirement
should be a matter of choice not compulsion.”

We see significant opportunities to increase the time that
people spend in productive employment. The OECD average
for estimated years in retirement is 21 to 28 years for women and
14 to 24 years for men. A UK government study released in 2011
found that increasing time in the workforce by just one year per
person would boost the level of real GDP by approximately 1
per cent.

Our own research, in collaboration with Oxford Econom-
ics, shows that by increasing the number of older people in the
workforce and making productivity-enhancing investments in
human capital, governments and businesses could boost eco-
nomic growth and job creation. We estimate that the United
States could increase its GDP by $442 billion and lift employ-
ment levels by five million by 2020. In Germany, similarly,
measures to harness the “silver economy” have the potential
to boost GDP by €61 billion and lift employment levels by D

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Rotman Magazine Spring 2013 / 67

A recent Swedish study examined productivity in nearly
9,000 manufacturing plants. Controlling for plant-level effects,
the researchers found that plants with a high proportion of older
adults were more likely to have higher productivity than were
plants with a high proportion of young people.

By adopting new work models, organizations can engage
people who aren’t able or interested to work full time. Small ad-
justments in the physical environment can address changes in
employees’ physical strength and stamina, which tend to decline
with age.

BMW, for example, implemented 70 changes to a produc-
tion line where the (older) employee profile reflected the com-
pany’s expected overall workforce profile in 2017. The changes
covered health care management and skills enhancement, as well
as improvements to the workplace environment, such as ortho-
pedic footwear and adjustable work tables. The production line’s
productivity improved by seven per cent in one year, bringing it to
the same level as lines staffed by younger workers.

Also, the deployment of technology and new work models en-

FIGURE ONE: EMERGING MARKETS THAT ARE ALSO AGING

Brazil

China

Mexico

under 15 over 60

35

Source: United Nations Population Division.

3525 2515 155 5

1.5 million by 2020. The research uncovered a similar story in
the UK and Spain.

The Reality: By taking steps to increase the employment of older
workers, countries can avert economic stagnation.

Myth 3: Employment is a zero-sum game, so retaining older
workers will only worsen the crisis of youth unemployment.
Unemployment is reaching record levels, particularly among the
young. In December 2011, the UK crossed the threshold of one
million unemployed young people, while in Spain approximately
52 per cent of 15- to 24-year-olds are unemployed. With so many
young people struggling to gain a foothold, many observers be-
lieve that retaining older workers will simply worsen the crisis.
This view, dubbed ‘the lump of labour fallacy’ by economists, as-
sumes that the number of jobs in an economy is fixed, which in
turn results in a misguided focus on protecting existing jobs.

The U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research has found
little evidence that older workers take jobs away from younger
ones in the United States. In some cases, such as in France and
Canada, the researchers also found that greater workforce partici-
pation among older people was associated with greater participa-
tion among young people, because of the increase in the overall
economic pie. Civic Venture’s Encore program is a powerful ex-
ample of offering second careers to older HP and Intel executives
in the non-profit sector.

To spur overall economic growth, business leaders and poli-
cymakers should devise incentives and training programs that
will enable older workers to stay in the workforce, rather than
push them out to make room for younger workers.

The Reality: Retaining older workers is likely to increase overall
employment growth.

Myth 4: Older workers tend to be less productive.
The myth is contained in this scenario: An organization primarily
employs people aged 50 and over, having long tenure. While they
are competent and knowledgeable, many are reluctant to em-
brace new ideas, are uncomfortable with making changes, aren’t
well motivated, and find early retirement increasingly enticing.
Consequently, productivity is lower than in a workplace domi-
nated by younger workers.

In reality, “productivity rises with age all the way up to retire-
ment,” according to a study of German production line workers
in a Mercedes-Benz truck factory. The authors concluded that
although deteriorating physical ability meant older employees
made more minor mistakes, these were “outweighed by the posi-
tive effects, such as the ability to cope when things go wrong.”

E
m

p
lo

ym
e

n
t

(m
ill

i

o
n

)

FIGURE TWO: MORE OLDER WORKERS = HIGHER GDP

2010
14 135

15 140

16
145

17
150

18

155

G
D

P
(

U
S

$
t

ri
lli

o
n

) 19

16020

16521

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GDP, increment in alternative trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scare)

GDP, current trajectory, constant 2010 process (left scare)

Employment, alternative trajectory (right scale)

Employment, current trajectory (right scale)

Source: Accenture, 2011.

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68 / Rotman Magazine Spring 2013

able flexible and remote work arrangements that might be more
appealing to older workers. MITRE Corporation, a U.S. research
and development enterprise, was concerned about losing its exper-
tise in fields such as radar. It launched the “Reserves at the Ready”
program to bring back retirees on a part-time, on-call basis.

The Reality: Organizations can sustain older workers’ productiv-
ity by adapting the workplace to their needs.

Myth 5: The entrepreneurial spirit tends to decline with age.
Setting up a new business is normally considered the preserve
of the young. Witness the wave of young technology-company
founders consistently featured on magazine covers. Governments
tend to focus their entrepreneurship policies and objectives on the
young. New funds are set up to help young entrepreneurs, such
as the “20 Under 20” Thiel Fellowship announced in 2011. There
have even been claims that for some sectors, like technology, the
peak age for entrepreneurship is similar to that for top athletes, at
25 years old.

But recent research has found that age is not the pre-eminent
factor influencing entrepreneurship, and that factors such as edu-
cational background and professional networks are more likely to
play a role. In fact, many people decide to set up a business in later
life. In the UK, entrepreneurs aged 50 to 65 created 27 per cent
of successful start-up companies between 2001 and 2005, equiva-
lent to 93,500 companies. During that period, this age group ac-
counted for 18 per cent of the UK population.

A recent survey in Finland of 839 small firms established in
the country between 2000 and 2006, found that 16 per cent were
set up by those aged 50 to 64. And in the U.S. between 2005 and
2010, entrepreneurial activity among those aged 45 and above in-
creased during the recession, while it declined among the 18 to 44
year olds.

Older people are also more likely to succeed in their new
business ventures, with surveys finding that ventures started by
those aged 50 and over had the lowest failure rates. Entrepre-
neurship among older people could potentially be even higher
if age-related barriers were removed. For instance, access to
seed capital and funding is crucial in setting up a new business.
Yet many older people confront age limits for financial products
and higher interest rates for loans, or are excluded from insur-
ance products.

The Reality: Older people are more likely to set up a new busi-
ness, and they’re less likely to fail.

Myth 6: Older consumers are an unattractive demographic for
marketers.
Many marketers don’t get excited about targeting products to older
consumers. They aren’t big spenders, the argument goes, because
they have less disposable income and often prefer to keep money
in the bank rather than spend it. What’s more, they’re less mobile
and have established brand preferences, so it’s harder to convince
them to try new products, the skeptics believe.

Research reveals that these skeptics hold sway. A recent sur-
vey found that only 37 per cent of companies find it fairly impor-
tant to take into account the needs and preferences of older con-
sumers when developing products for them. Most companies take
great care in distinguishing between 20 or 40 year olds, but lump
50 and 70 year olds into the same category. This skepticism is
also reflected in marketing practices, as research shows that only
about 30 per cent of TV advertisements include someone over 50.
Not surprisingly, 70 per cent of people over 55 believe that adver-
tising does not speak to their needs.

In reality, what the skeptics fail to understand is that older
consumers have vast purchasing power. In the U.S., consumers
aged 50 and above outspent younger adults by approximately $1
trillion in 2010. In the same year, Baby Boomers were reportedly
the dominant spenders in 1,023 out of 1,083 consumer packaged
goods categories. In the UK, Baby Boomers hold around 80 per
cent of all financial assets; and in Europe, the over-65 age group is
estimated to be worth more than €300 billion.

Clearly, companies have not invested sufficient time, money
and resources in understanding the untapped opportunity of-
fered by older consumers. Companies should start by adopting
more inclusive product development strategies and marketing
approaches that include consumers of all ages. Some companies
have already expanded their product range to cater to older con-
sumers. For example, Harley Davidson — recognizing that the
average age of its customer has increased from 38 to 46 years old
in the last two decades — is designing new motorcycles to appeal
to consumers in their sixties and beyond.

Marketing for ‘silver consumers’ however has to fit hand
in glove with brand perception. A good example is Unilever’s
Dove soap campaign that featured women from everyday life and

Ventures star ted by those aged 50
and over have the lowest failure rates .

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Rotman Magazine Spring 2013 / 69

captions like “Why aren’t women glad to be gray?” The campaign
helped the company substantially boost sales around the world —
no mean feat for the static soap category.

The Reality: Older consumers have vast purchasing power, mak-
ing them an untapped opportunity for marketers.

Myth 7: Older consumers are less likely to adopt new
technology.
There is a common misperception that older people are slow to
engage with new technologies. Older people can’t keep up with
the latest technological developments, and aren’t early adopters
or trend-setters. You can’t teach an old dog new tricks, these scep-
tics believe.

Research shows that although this might have been true in
the past, the story is now changing. It’s true that there is a digi-
tal divide between the old and the young in many countries. In
Germany, for instance, only 31 per cent of those aged 65 and over
used the Internet in 2010, compared with an average of more
than 75 per cent for the overall population. But this is due to lack
of experience rather than age — it reflects a generational differ-
ence rather than an inherent relationship between age and tech-
nology adoption. Many of the younger Baby Boomers were in
the workforce during the evolution of computers, email and the
Internet, and were the first to understand the value of technology.

In Germany, 75 per cent of those aged 45 to 64 in 2010 regular-
ly used the Internet, in line with figures for the overall population.
Nearly 80 per cent of U.S. Baby Boomers use the Internet for social
media, downloading music and movies, financial transactions and
gaming. The tech-savvy middle-aged of today will comprise an
equally tech-savvy cohort of seniors in the coming decades.

One product that has managed to transcend age barriers is
Apple’s iPad: from design to marketing, the product is age-in-
clusive, contributing to its wide appeal. For example, the power-
ful zoom, intelligent keyboard and voice functions such as Auto-
text mean that it’s very easy to use and accessible. Likewise, the
advertising campaign shows people of all ages engaging with
the product.

The Reality: The digital divide isn’t inherently age-based, and it
will close over time.

Discarding Myths, Realizing Opportunities
Both business leaders and policymakers must recognize that now
is the time to address population aging. As a starting point, busi-
ness leaders can assess their company’s preparedness on key di-
mensions, by asking the following questions:

Julika Erfurt (julika.erfurt@
accenture.com) is a manager in
Accenture’s strategy practice.
Athena Peppes (athena.pep-
pes@accenture.com) is a senior

research specialist with the Accenture Institute for High Performance. Mark
Purdy (mark.purdy@accenture.com ) is a senior executive research fellow at
the Accenture Institute for High Performance. All three are based in London.

tion aging?

changing needs of older workers?

exchange of knowledge between generations?

ligence on consumers aged 55 and over?

and preferences of older consumers?

Policymakers can make a start by focusing on the following
questions:

ting lifetime skill formation?

people to stay in the workforce?

aging population?

searchers, business leaders and policymakers on the issues
arising from an aging population?

or regulation — that frequently stymie the entrepreneurial
potential of the older population?

In closing
“Demography is destiny,” the sociologist Auguste Comte stated
almost 200 years ago. This may well be true, but that destiny is
not immutable. Just as aging individuals must adjust their life-
styles to maintain personal vitality, societies with aging popula-
tions must adjust business practices and policies to boost their
economic vigor.

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0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
]
/PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)
/PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()
/PDFXOutputCondition ()
/PDFXRegistryName ()
/PDFXTrapped /False
/Description << /CHS
/CHT
/DAN
/DEU
/ESP
/FRA
/ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile. I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 5.0 e versioni successive.)
/JPN
/KOR
/NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt. De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 5.0 en hoger.)
/NOR
/PTB
/SUO
/SVE
/ENU ()
>>
>> setdistillerparams
<< /HWResolution [600 600] /PageSize [612.000 792.000] >> setpagedevice

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