Nucor Case
The requirements are given below, although you only need to complete the circled section, real option analysis, because the others are already done. The answers for the other parts are given below. Please refer to the attached excel info for numerical data.
Save Time On Research and Writing
Hire a Pro to Write You a 100% Plagiarism-Free Paper.
Get My Paper
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
>
Operati
|
| n |
g assumptions
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Exhibit
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
2B
Modernized |
Unmodernized |
Thin-slab Minimill |
| Integrated Mill |
Integrated Mill
|
| HR |
|
| CR |
HR CR HR CR
Operating assumptions
| Labor |
/ hour
| $2
Save Time On Research and Writing
Hire a Pro to Write You a 100% Plagiarism-Free Paper.
Get My Paper
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 0 |
.00
$2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 0.00 |
|
|
| $
| 2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
0
$
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
.50 $23.50 $23.50
| Scrap |
/ ton
| $
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
0.00
$90.00
|
|
| $
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
0.00
$80.00 $80.00 $80.00
Man hours / ton |
1.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
5
2.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
5
2.85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
.50
3.90 |
5.85 |
Capacity Utilization |
|
|
| 90.00% |
90.00% 90.00% 90.00%
| 75.00% |
75.00%
Operation costs / ton |
Labor
$
| 35 |
.00
$53.00 |
$67.00 |
$
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
5.50
$91.50 |
$
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
1.00
Ore |
0 0
51 |
54 |
52 |
| 56 |
Coal |
0 0 35
37.5 |
| 38 |
4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 0.5 |
Energy |
|
|
|
|
|
| 24 |
38 9 23
| 9.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 25 |
Scrap
100 |
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
.5
9.5
|
|
|
|
|
| 19 |
.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
.5
Materials and supplies |
56
| 72.5 |
71 |
93 |
72.5
95.5 |
Maintenance & repairs |
10
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
.5
15
26.5 |
17
29.5 |
Total costs / ton |
$
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 22 |
5
.00
$
|
|
|
| 283 |
.00
$
|
| 261.5 |
0
$
|
| 349.00 |
$
| 300 |
.00
$
| 403 |
.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Revenue / ton |
$
|
|
|
| 306.5 |
0
$
|
|
|
| 390.5 |
0
$
| 326.00 |
$
| 454.50 |
$
|
| 325.00 |
$
|
| 453.00 |
Summary
CF analysis- thin slab |
Original |
Adj. 1 (price growth rate) |
Adj. 2 (Operating Cost Growth Rate) |
Adj. 3 (discount rate decreases) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 5 CF: |
|
|
|
|
| 71.78 |
|
| 104.84 |
|
| 87.26 |
71.78
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 5 Assets: |
|
|
| 196 |
196 196 196
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 5 ROA: |
|
|
| 36.62% |
| 53.49% |
| 44.52% |
36.62%
CF analysis-thin slab
|
|
|
|
|
| Assumptions: |
|
|
|
|
|
| Annual growth rate of price of steel |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6.84% |
|
|
|
|
|
| (historical) |
|
|
|
|
|
| Annual growth rate of operating costs |
4.00%
|
|
|
|
|
| Tax rate |
|
|
|
|
|
| 35.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Discount rate |
|
|
|
|
| 15.00% |
|
|
| Thin Slab Minimill |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1986 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1987 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1988 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1989 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1990 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1991 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1992 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1993 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1994 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1995 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1996 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Capacity(million of tons of steel) |
0 0 0
|
|
|
| Shipments (12A) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| – Hot-rolled sheets (HR) |
(12A)
0 0 0
|
|
| 0.25 |
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| – Cold-rolled sheets (CR) |
(12A)
0 0 0
|
|
| 0.175 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 0.35 |
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
|
|
| – Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) |
306.5
|
| 3
|
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
.76
|
| 331.51 |
|
| 344.77 |
|
| 358.56 |
|
| 372.90 |
|
| 387.82 |
|
| 403.33 |
|
| 419.47 |
|
| 436.25 |
|
| 453.69 |
|
| 471.84 |
|
| 490.72 |
|
|
|
|
|
| – Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) |
390.5
|
| 406.12 |
|
| 422.36 |
|
| 439.26 |
|
| 456.83 |
|
| 475.10 |
|
| 494.11 |
|
| 513.87 |
|
| 534.43 |
|
| 555.80 |
|
| 578.04 |
|
| 601.
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
|
| 625.
|
|
|
|
|
| 20 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton) |
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
|
| 86.19 |
|
| 179.28 |
|
| 186.45 |
|
| 193.91 |
|
| 201.67 |
|
| 209.73 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
8.12
|
| 226.85 |
|
| 235.92 |
|
| 245.36 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
|
| 76.87 |
|
| 159.89 |
|
| 166.29 |
|
| 172.94 |
|
| 179.85 |
|
| 187.05 |
|
| 194.53 |
|
| 202.31 |
|
| 210.40 |
|
| 218.82 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Operating costs / ton |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| – Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) |
225
|
| 234.00 |
|
| 243.36 |
|
| 253.09 |
|
| 263.22 |
|
| 273.75 |
|
|
| 284.70 |
|
| 296.08 |
|
|
| 307.93 |
|
|
| 320.25 |
|
| 333.05 |
|
|
| 346.38 |
|
| 360.23 |
|
|
|
|
| – Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) |
283
|
| 294.32 |
|
| 306.09 |
|
| 318.34 |
|
| 331.07 |
|
| 344.31 |
|
| 358.09 |
|
| 372.41 |
|
| 387.31 |
|
| 402.80 |
|
| 418.91 |
|
| 435.67 |
|
| 453.09 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton) |
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
|
| 63.27 |
|
| 131.61 |
|
| 136.87 |
|
| 142.35 |
|
| 148.04 |
|
| 153.96 |
|
| 160.12 |
|
| 166.53 |
|
| 173.19 |
|
| 180.12 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
|
| 55.71 |
|
| 115.87 |
|
| 120.51 |
|
| 125.33 |
|
| 130.34 |
|
| 135.56 |
|
| 140.98 |
|
| 146.62 |
|
| 152.48 |
|
| 158.58 |
|
|
| Depreciate over 10 years |
0.00 0.00 0.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 28.00 |
28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
|
|
|
|
|
| Income |
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
| 22.92 |
| 47.67 |
| 49.58 |
| 51.56 |
| 53.62 |
| 55.77 |
| 58.00 |
| 60.32 |
| 62.73 |
| 65.24 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
| 21.16 |
| 44.02 |
| 45.78 |
| 47.61 |
| 49.51 |
| 51.49 |
| 53.55 |
| 55.69 |
| 57.92 |
| 60.24 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total income |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| $0.00 |
$0.00 $0.00
| $16.08 |
| $63.69 |
| $67.36 |
| $71.17 |
| $75.14 |
| $79.26 |
| $83.55 |
| $88.01 |
| $92.65 |
| $97.48 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Taxes |
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
| $5.63 |
| $22.29 |
| $23.57 |
| $24.91 |
| $26.30 |
| $27.74 |
| $29.24 |
| $30.80 |
| $32.43 |
| $34.12 |
|
|
| Income after taxes |
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
| $10.45 |
| $41.40 |
| $43.78 |
| $46.26 |
| $48.84 |
| $51.52 |
| $54.31 |
| $57.21 |
| $60.23 |
| $63.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Add back depreciation |
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| $28.00 |
$28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
|
|
|
|
|
| Subtract capital expenditures |
|
|
| -$280.00 |
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
|
|
| Subtract startup costs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 30.00 |
|
|
| Subtract working capital costs |
30.00
|
|
|
|
|
| Cash flow |
|
|
| -280.00 |
0.00 0.00
| 98.45 |
| 69.40 |
71.78
| 7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4.2 |
6
| 76.84 |
| 79.52 |
| 82.31 |
| 85.21 |
| 88.23 |
| 91.36 |
|
|
|
| Internal rate of return (
|
| IRR |
)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15% |
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
|
|
|
|
|
| Discounted cash flow |
$0.00 $0.00
$85.61 |
$60.35 |
$62.42 |
$64.57 |
$66.82 |
$69.15 |
$71.57 |
$74.09 |
$76.72 |
$79.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sum of discounted cash flow |
$710.74 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? |
Year 5 CF: 71.78
Year 5 Assets:
|
|
| 196.00 |
Year 5 ROA: 36.62%
CF analysis-thin slab – Adj #1
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 6.84% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
|
|
| – Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) |
0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
|
|
| – Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) |
0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5
327.4646 |
349.86 |
373.79 |
399.36 |
426.68 |
455.86 |
487.04 |
520.36 |
5
| 55.95 |
593.98 |
634.60 |
678.01 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5
417.2102 |
445.75 |
476.24 |
| 508.81 |
543.61 |
580.80 |
620.52 |
662.97 |
708.31 |
756.76 |
808.53 |
863.83 |
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
93.45 |
199.68 |
213.34 |
227.93 |
| 243.52 |
260.18 |
277.97 |
296.99 |
317.30 |
339.01 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
83.34 |
178.08 |
190.26 |
203.28 |
217.18 |
232.04 |
247.91 |
264.87 |
282.98 |
302.34 |
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
30.17 |
| 68.07 |
76.47 |
85.58 |
95.48 |
106.21 |
117.85 |
130.46 |
144.11 |
158.89 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
27.63 |
62.21 |
69.76 |
77.95 |
86.84 |
96.48 |
106.93 |
118.25 |
130.50 |
143.76 |
Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$29.81 |
$102.28 |
$118.22 |
$135.53 |
$154.32 |
$174.70 |
$196.78 |
$220.71 |
$246.61 |
$274.65 |
Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$10.43 |
$35.80 |
$41.38 |
$47.44 |
$54.01 |
$61.14 |
$68.87 |
$77.25 |
$86.32 |
$96.13 |
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$19.37 |
$66.48 |
$76.84 |
$88.10 |
$100.31 |
$113.55 |
$127.91 |
$143.46 |
$160.30 |
$178.52 |
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00
107.37 |
94.48 |
104.84
116.10 |
128.31 |
141.55 |
155.91 |
171.46 |
188.30 |
206.52 |
Internal rate of return (IRR) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00
$93.37 |
$8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.1 |
6
| $91.17 |
$100.95 |
$111.57 |
$123.09 |
$135.57 |
$149.10 |
$163.74 |
$179.58 |
Sum of discounted cash flow
$1,230.30 |
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 104.84
Year 5 Assets: 196.00
Year 5 ROA: 53.49%
CF analysis-thin slab 1-Adj #2
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs
2.00% |
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 318.76 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.16 625.20
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 218.12 226.85 235.92 245.36
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225
229.50 |
234.09 |
238.77 |
243.55 |
248.42 |
253.39 |
258.45 |
263.62 |
268.90 |
274.27 |
279.76 |
285.35 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283
288.66 |
294.43 |
300.32 |
306.33 |
312.45 |
318.70 |
325.08 |
331.58 |
338.21 |
344.98 |
351.87 |
358.91 |
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
59.69 |
121.77 |
124.21 |
126.69 |
129.23 |
131.81 |
134.45 |
137.14 |
139.88 |
142.68 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
52.56 |
107.21 |
109.36 |
111.55 |
113.78 |
116.05 |
118.37 |
120.74 |
123.16 |
125.62 |
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
26.50 |
57.51 |
62.24 |
67.22 |
72.44 |
77.92 |
83.67 |
89.71 |
96.04 |
102.68 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00
24.31 |
52.68 |
56.93 |
61.39 |
66.08 |
71.00 |
76.16 |
81.57 |
87.25 |
93.20 |
Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$22.81 |
$82.18 |
$91.17
$100.61 |
$110.52 |
$120.92 |
$131.83 |
$143.28 |
$155.29 |
$167.88 |
Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$7.98 |
$28.76 |
$31.91 |
$35.21 |
$38.68 |
$42.32 |
$46.14 |
$50.15 |
$54.35 |
$58.76 |
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$14.83 |
$53.42 |
$59.26 |
$65.40 |
$71.84 |
$78.60 |
$85.69 |
$93.13 |
$100.94 |
$109.12 |
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00
102.83 |
81.42 |
87.26
93.40 |
| 99.84 |
106.60 |
113.69 |
121.13 |
128.94 |
137.12 |
Internal rate of return (IRR) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00
$89.42 |
$70.80 |
$75.88 |
$81.21 |
$86.81 |
$92.69 |
$98.86 |
$105.33 |
$112.12 |
$119.24 |
Sum of discounted cash flow
$932.37 |
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 87.26
Year 5 Assets: 196.00
Year 5 ROA: 44.52%
CF analysis-thin slab- Adj #3
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate
10.00% |
Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 318.76 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.16 625.20
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 218.12 226.85 235.92 245.36
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58
Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.92 47.67 49.58 51.56 53.62 55.77 58.00 60.32 62.73 65.24
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.16 44.02 45.78 47.61 49.51 51.49 53.55 55.69 57.92 60.24
Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $16.08 $63.69 $67.36 $71.17 $75.14 $79.26 $83.55 $88.01 $92.65 $97.48
Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.63 $22.29 $23.57 $24.91 $26.30 $27.74 $29.24 $30.80 $32.43 $34.12
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10.45 $41.40 $43.78 $46.26 $48.84 $51.52 $54.31 $57.21 $60.23 $63.36
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00
Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00 98.45 69.40 71.78 74.26 76.84 79.52 82.31 85.21 88.23 91.36
Internal rate of return (IRR)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10% |
10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00
$89.50 |
$63.09 |
$65.26 |
$67.51 |
$69.85 |
$72.29 |
$74.83 |
$77.46 |
$80.21 |
$83.06 |
Sum of discounted cash flow
$743.05 |
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 71.78
Year 5 Assets: 196.00
Year 5 ROA: 36.62%
CF analysis – Modernize
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Modernized integrated mill |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
|
| 1999 |
|
| 2000 |
|
| 2001 |
|
| 2002 |
|
| 2003 |
|
| 2004 |
|
| 2005 |
|
| 2006 |
|
| 2007 |
|
| 2008 |
|
| 2009 |
|
| 2010 |
|
| 2011 |
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1.35 |
1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) |
326.00
339.04 |
352.60 |
366.71 |
381.37 |
396.63 |
412.49 |
428.99 |
446.15 |
464.00 |
482.56 |
501.86 |
521.94 |
542.81 |
564.53 |
587.11 |
610.59 |
635.02 |
660.42 |
686.83 |
714.31 |
742.88 |
772.59 |
803.50 |
835.64 |
869.06 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) |
454.50
472.68 |
491.59 |
511.25 |
531.70 |
552.97 |
575.09 |
598.09 |
622.01 |
646.90 |
672.77 |
699.68 |
727.67 |
756.78 |
787.05 |
818.53 |
851.27 |
885.32 |
920.73 |
957.56 |
995.87 |
1035.70 |
1077.13 |
1120.21 |
1165.02 |
1211.62 |
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
711.98 |
740.46 |
770.08 |
800.89 |
832.92 |
866.24 |
900.89 |
936.92 |
974.40 |
1013.38 |
1053.91 |
1096.07 |
1139.91 |
1185.51 |
1232.93 |
1282.24 |
1333.53 |
1386.87 |
1442.35 |
1500.04 |
1560.04 |
1622.45 |
1687.34 |
1754.84 |
1825.03 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00
638.12 |
663.64 |
690.19 |
717.80 |
746.51 |
776.37 |
807.42 |
839.72 |
873.31 |
908.24 |
944.57 |
982.35 |
1021.65 |
1062.51 |
1105.01 |
1149.21 |
1195.18 |
1242.99 |
1292.71 |
1344.42 |
1398.20 |
1454.12 |
1512.29 |
1572.78 |
1635.69 |
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 261.50
| 271.96 |
| 282.84 |
| 294.15 |
| 305.92 |
| 318.15 |
| 330.88 |
| 344.12 |
| 357.88 |
| 372.20 |
| 387.08 |
| 402.57 |
| 418.67 |
| 435.42 |
| 452.83 |
| 470.95 |
| 489.78 |
| 509.38 |
| 529.75 |
| 550.94 |
| 572.98 |
| 595.90 |
| 619.73 |
| 644.52 |
| 670.30 |
| 697.12 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 349.00
| 362.96 |
| 377.48 |
| 392.58 |
| 408.28 |
| 424.61 |
| 441.60 |
| 459.26 |
| 477.63 |
| 496.74 |
| 516.61 |
| 537.27 |
| 558.76 |
| 581.11 |
| 604.36 |
| 628.53 |
| 653.67 |
| 679.82 |
| 707.01 |
| 735.29 |
| 764.70 |
| 795.29 |
| 827.10 |
| 860.19 |
| 894.59 |
| 930.38 |
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
| 571.12 |
| 593.96 |
| 617.72 |
| 642.43 |
| 668.12 |
| 694.85 |
| 722.64 |
| 751.55 |
| 781.61 |
| 812.88 |
| 845.39 |
| 879.21 |
| 914.38 |
| 950.95 |
| 988.99 |
| 1028.55 |
| 1069.69 |
| 1112.48 |
| 1156.98 |
| 1203.26 |
| 1251.39 |
| 1301.44 |
| 1353.50 |
| 1407.64 |
| 1463.94 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00
| 490.00 |
| 509.60 |
| 529.98 |
| 551.18 |
| 573.23 |
| 596.16 |
| 620.00 |
| 644.80 |
| 670.59 |
| 697.42 |
| 725.31 |
| 754.33 |
| 784.50 |
| 815.88 |
| 848.51 |
| 882.46 |
| 917.75 |
| 954.46 |
| 992.64 |
| 1032.35 |
| 1073.64 |
| 1116.59 |
| 1161.25 |
| 1207.70 |
| 1256.01 |
Depreciate over 25 years |
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 74.92 |
74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
140.87 |
146.50 |
152.36 |
158.46 |
164.80 |
171.39 |
178.24 |
185.37 |
192.79 |
200.50 |
208.52 |
216.86 |
225.53 |
234.56 |
243.94 |
253.70 |
263.84 |
274.40 |
285.37 |
296.79 |
308.66 |
321.01 |
333.85 |
347.20 |
361.09 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00
148.12 |
154.05 |
160.21 |
166.62 |
173.28 |
180.21 |
187.42 |
194.92 |
202.72 |
210.82 |
219.26 |
228.03 |
237.15 |
246.63 |
256.50 |
266.76 |
277.43 |
288.53 |
| 300.07 |
312.07 |
324.55 |
337.54 |
351.04 |
365.08 |
379.68 |
Total income
| 214.07 |
225.63 |
237.65 |
250.15 |
263.16 |
276.68 |
290.74 |
305.37 |
320.58 |
336.40 |
352.86 |
369.97 |
387.76 |
406.27 |
425.52 |
445.53 |
466.35 |
488.00 |
510.52 |
533.94 |
558.29 |
583.62 |
609.96 |
637.36 |
665.85 |
Taxes 74.92
78.97 |
83.18 |
87.55 |
92.11 |
96.84 |
101.76 |
106.88 |
112.20 |
117.74 |
123.50 |
129.49 |
135.72 |
142.19 |
148.93 |
155.94 |
163.22 |
170.80 |
178.68 |
186.88 |
195.40 |
204.27 |
213.49 |
223.08 |
233.05 |
Income after Taxes |
139.15 |
146.66 |
154.47 |
162.60 |
171.05 |
179.84 |
188.98 |
198.49 |
208.38 |
218.66 |
229.36 |
240.48 |
252.05 |
264.08 |
276.59 |
289.60 |
303.13 |
317.20 |
331.84 |
347.06 |
362.89 |
379.35 |
396.48 |
414.28 |
432.80 |
Add back depreciation 0 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Subtract capital expenditures
| -1,873 |
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow -1,873 214.07
221.58 |
229.39 |
237.52 |
| 245.97 |
254.76 |
263.90 |
273.41 |
283.30 |
293.58 |
304.28 |
315.40 |
326.97 |
339.00 |
351.51 |
364.52 |
378.05 |
392.12 |
406.76 |
421.98 |
437.81 |
454.27 |
471.40 |
489.20 |
507.72 |
Internal rate of return (IRR)
14% |
Discounted cash flow
-$1,8
|
| 73.00 |
$186.14 |
$192.68 |
$199.47 |
$206.54 |
$213.89 |
$221.53 |
$229.48 |
$237.75 |
$246.35 |
$255.29 |
$264.59 |
$274.26 |
$284.32 |
$294.78 |
$305.66 |
$316.97 |
$328.74 |
$340.98 |
$353.70 |
$366.94 |
$380.70 |
$395.02 |
$409.91 |
$425.39 |
$441.50 |
n years |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sum of discounted cash flow
$5,499.58 |
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 245.97
Year 5 Assets:
1498.4 |
Year 5 ROA:
16.42% |
0.3283133027 |
CF analysis – Unmodernized
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
| Unmodernized integrated mill |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
| Shipments (12A) |
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1.68 |
1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1.08 |
1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 325.00
| 338.00 |
| 351.52 |
| 365.58 |
| 380.20 |
| 395.41 |
| 411.23 |
| 427.68 |
| 444.78 |
| 462.58 |
| 481.08 |
| 500.32 |
| 520.34 |
| 541.15 |
| 562.79 |
| 585.31 |
| 608.72 |
| 633.07 |
| 658.39 |
| 684.73 |
| 712.12 |
| 740.60 |
| 770.22 |
| 801.03 |
| 833.07 |
| 866.40 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 453.00
| 471.12 |
| 489.96 |
| 509.56 |
| 529.95 |
| 551.14 |
| 573.19 |
| 596.12 |
| 619.96 |
| 644.76 |
| 670.55 |
| 697.37 |
| 725.27 |
| 754.28 |
| 784.45 |
| 815.83 |
| 848.46 |
| 882.40 |
| 917.69 |
| 954.40 |
| 992.58 |
| 1032.28 |
| 1073.57 |
| 1116.52 |
| 1161.18 |
| 1207.62 |
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
567.84 |
590.55 |
614.18 |
638.74 |
664.29 |
690.86 |
718.50 |
7
| 47.24 |
777.13 |
808.21 |
840.54 |
874.16 |
909.13 |
945.50 |
983.32 |
1022.65 |
1063.55 |
1106.10 |
1150.34 |
1196.35 |
1244.21 |
1293.98 |
1345.73 |
1399.56 |
1455.55 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 508.81
529.16 |
550.33 |
572.34 |
595.24 |
619.04 |
643.81 |
669.56 |
696.34 |
724.19 |
753.16 |
783.29 |
814.62 |
847.21 |
881.09 |
916.34 |
952.99 |
991.11 |
1030.75 |
1071.99 |
1114.86 |
1159.46 |
1205.84 |
1254.07 |
1304.23 |
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 300
312.00 |
324.48 |
337.46 |
350.96 |
365.00 |
379.60 |
394.78 |
410.57 |
426.99 |
444.07 |
461.84 |
480.31 |
499.52 |
519.50 |
540.28 |
561.89 |
584.37 |
607.74 |
632.05 |
657.34 |
683.63 |
710.98 |
739.41 |
768.99 |
799.75 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 403
419.12 |
435.88 |
453.32 |
471.45 |
490.31 |
509.92 |
530.32 |
551.53 |
573.59 |
596.54 |
620.40 |
645.22 |
671.02 |
697.87 |
725.78 |
754.81 |
785.00 |
816.40 |
849.06 |
883.02 |
918.34 |
955.08 |
993.28 |
1033.01 |
1074.33 |
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
524.16 |
545.13 |
566.93 |
589.61 |
613.19 |
637.72 |
663.23 |
689.76 |
717.35 |
746.04 |
775.88 |
806.92 |
839.20 |
872.76 |
907.68 |
943.98 |
981.74 |
1021.01 |
1061.85 |
1104.33 |
1148.50 |
1194.44 |
1242.22 |
1291.91 |
1343.58 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00
452.65 |
470.76 |
489.59 |
509.17 |
529.54 |
550.72 |
572.75 |
595.66 |
619.48 |
644.26 |
670.03 |
696.83 |
724.71 |
753.69 |
783.84 |
815.20 |
847.80 |
881.72 |
916.99 |
953.66 |
991.81 |
1031.48 |
1072.74 |
1115.65 |
1160.28 |
| Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) |
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
43.68 |
45.43 |
47.24
49.13 |
51.10 |
53.14 |
55.27 |
57.48 |
59.78 |
62.17 |
64.66 |
67.24 |
69.93 |
72.73 |
75.64 |
78.67 |
81.81 |
85.08 |
88.49 |
92.03 |
95.71 |
99.54 |
103.52 |
107.66 |
111.97 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00
56.16 |
58.41 |
60.74 |
63.17 |
65.70 |
68.33 |
71.06 |
73.90 |
76.86 |
79.93 |
83.13 |
86.46 |
89.91 |
93.51 |
97.25 |
101.14 |
105.19 |
109.39 |
113.77 |
118.32 |
123.05 |
127.98 |
133.09 |
138.42 |
143.96 |
Total income 0.00 99.84
103.83 |
107.99 |
112.31 |
116.80 |
121.47 |
126.33 |
131.38 |
136.64 |
142.10 |
147.79 |
153.70 |
159.85 |
166.24 |
172.89 |
179.81 |
187.00 |
194.48 |
202.26 |
210.35 |
218.76 |
227.51 |
236.61 |
246.08 |
255.92 |
Taxes 0
34.94 |
36.34 |
37.80 |
39.31 |
40.88 |
42.51 |
44.22 |
45.98 |
47.82 |
49.74 |
51.73 |
53.79 |
55.95
58.18 |
60.51 |
62.93 |
65.45 |
68.07
70.79 |
73.62 |
76.57 |
79.63 |
82.81 |
86.13 |
89.57 |
| Total Income after Tax |
| 64.90 |
| 67.49 |
| 70.19 |
73.00
|
| 75.92 |
| 78.96 |
| 82.11 |
| 85.40 |
| 88.81 |
| 92.37 |
| 96.06 |
| 99.90 |
| 103.90 |
| 108.06 |
| 112.38 |
| 116.87 |
| 121.55 |
| 126.41 |
| 131.47 |
| 136.73 |
| 142.20 |
| 147.88 |
| 153.80 |
| 159.95 |
| 166.35 |
Add back depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtract capital expenditures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow 0 64.90 67.49 70.19 73.00 75.92 78.96 82.11 85.40 88.81 92.37 96.06 99.90 103.90 108.06 112.38 116.87 121.55 126.41 131.47 136.73 142.20 147.88 153.80 159.95 166.35
IRR
Discounted cash flow $0.00
$56.43 |
$58.69 |
$61.04 |
$63.48 |
$66.02 |
$68.66 |
$71.40 |
$74.26 |
$77.23 |
$80.32 |
$83.53 |
$86.87 |
$90.35 |
$93.96 |
$97.72 |
$101.63 |
$105.69 |
$109.92 |
$114.32 |
$118.89 |
$123.65 |
$128.59 |
$133.74 |
$139.09 |
$144.65 |
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sum of discounted cash flow
$2,350.13 |
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 75.92
Year 5 Assets: 0.00
Year 5 ROA:
N/A |
CF analysis – Formerly Unmodern
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Unmodernized integrated mill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 325.00 338.00 351.52 365.58 380.20 395.41 411.23 427.68 444.78 462.58 481.08 500.32 520.34 541.15 562.79 585.31 608.72 633.07 658.39 684.73 712.12 740.60 770.22 801.03 833.07 866.40
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 453.00 471.12 489.96 509.56 529.95 551.14 573.19 596.12 619.96 644.76 670.55 697.37 725.27 754.28 784.45 815.83 848.46 882.40 917.69 954.40 992.58 1032.28 1073.57 1116.52 1161.18 1207.62
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
709.80 |
738.19 |
767.72 |
798.43 |
830.37 |
863.58 |
898.12 |
934.05 |
971.41 |
1010.27 |
1050.68 |
1092.70 |
1136.41 |
1181.87 |
1229.14 |
1278.31 |
1329.44 |
1382.62 |
1437.92 |
1495.44 |
1555.26 |
1617.47 |
1682.17 |
1749.46 |
1819.43 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00
636.01 |
661.45 |
687.91 |
715.43 |
744.04 |
773.81 |
804.76 |
836.95 |
870.43 |
905.24 |
941.45 |
979.11 |
1018.28 |
1059.01 |
1101.37 |
1145.42 |
1191.24 |
1238.89 |
1288.44 |
1339.98 |
1393.58 |
1449.32 |
1507.30 |
1567.59 |
1630.29 |
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 261.5 271.96 282.84 294.15 305.92 318.15 330.88 344.12 357.88 372.20 387.08 402.57 418.67 435.42 452.83 470.95 489.78 509.38 529.75 550.94 572.98 595.90 619.73 644.52 670.30 697.12
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 349.00 362.96 377.48 392.58 408.28 424.61 441.60 459.26 477.63 496.74 516.61 537.27 558.76 581.11 604.36 628.53 653.67 679.82 707.01 735.29 764.70 795.29 827.10 860.19 894.59 930.38
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 571.12 593.96 617.72 642.43 668.12 694.85 722.64 751.55 781.61 812.88 845.39 879.21 914.38 950.95 988.99 1028.55 1069.69 1112.48 1156.98 1203.26 1251.39 1301.44 1353.50 1407.64 1463.94
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 490.00 509.60 529.98 551.18 573.23 596.16 620.00 644.80 670.59 697.42 725.31 754.33 784.50 815.88 848.51 882.46 917.75 954.46 992.64 1032.35 1073.64 1116.59 1161.25 1207.70 1256.01
Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00
138.68 |
144.23 |
150.00 |
156.00 |
162.24 |
168.73 |
175.48 |
182.50 |
189.80 |
197.39 |
205.29 |
213.50 |
222.04 |
230.92 |
240.16 |
249.76 |
259.75 |
270.14 |
280.95 |
292.19 |
303.87 |
316.03 |
328.67 |
341.82 |
355.49 |
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00
146.02 |
151.86 |
157.93 |
164.25 |
170.82 |
177.65 |
184.76 |
192.15 |
199.83 |
207.83 |
216.14 |
224.78 |
233.78 |
243.13 |
252.85 |
262.97 |
273.49 |
284.42 |
295.80 |
307.63 |
319.94 |
332.74 |
346.05 |
359.89 |
374.28 |
Total income 0.00 284.70
296.09 |
307.93 320.25
333.06 |
346.38
360.24 |
374.65 |
389.63 |
405.22 |
421.43 |
438.28 |
455.81 |
474.05 |
493.01 |
512.73 |
533.24 |
554.57 |
576.75 |
599.82 |
623.81 |
648.77 |
674.72 |
701.70 |
729.77 |
Taxes 0
99.65 |
103.63 |
107.78 |
112.09 |
116.57 |
121.23 |
126.08 |
131.13 |
136.37 |
141.83 |
147.50 |
153.40 |
159.53 |
165.92 |
172.55 |
179.46 |
186.63 |
194.10 |
201.86 |
209.94 |
218.33 |
227.07 |
236.15 |
245.60 |
255.42 |
Total Income after Tax
185.06 |
192.46 |
200.16 |
208.16 |
216.49 |
225.15 |
234.15 |
243.52
253.26 |
263.39 |
273.93 |
284.88 |
296.28 |
308.13 |
320.46 |
333.27 |
346.60 |
360.47 |
374.89 |
389.88 |
405.48 |
421.70 |
438.57 |
456.11 |
474.35 |
Add back depreciation 0 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Subtract capital expenditures
| -1873 |
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow -1873
259.98 |
267.38 |
275.08 |
283.08 |
| 291.41 |
300.07
309.07 |
318.44 |
328.18 |
338.31 |
348.85 |
359.80 |
371.20 |
383.05 |
395.38 |
408.19 |
421.52 |
435.39 |
449.81 |
464.80 |
480.40 |
496.62 |
513.49 |
531.03 |
549.27 |
IRR
16% |
Discounted cash flow
-$1,628.70 |
$226.07 |
$232.50 |
$239.20 |
$246.16 |
$253.40 |
$260.93 |
$268.76 |
$276.90 |
$285.37 |
$294.18 |
$303.34 |
$312.87 |
$322.78 |
$333.09 |
$343.80 |
$354.95 |
$366.54 |
$378.60 |
$391.14 |
$404.18 |
$417.74 |
$431.84 |
$446.51 |
$461.76 |
$477.63 |
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sum of discounted cash flow
$6,701.55 |
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 291.41
Year 5 Assets:
1,498.40 |
Year 5 ROA:
0.1944795621 |
Turn in your highest-quality paper
Get a qualified writer to help you with
“ Nucor Case ”
Get high-quality paper
NEW! AI matching with writer