Nucor Case

The requirements are given below, although you only need to complete the circled section, real option analysis, because the others are already done. The answers for the other parts are given below. Please refer to the attached excel info for numerical data.

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2

>

Operati

n

g assumptions

2B

Integrated Mill

HR CR HR CR

Operating assumptions

/ hour

.00

$2

.

0

$

.50 $23.50 $23.50

/ ton

0.00

$90.00

0.00

$80.00 $80.00 $80.00

5

5

.50

90.00% 90.00% 90.00%

75.00%

Labor

.00

5.50

1.00

0 0

0 0 35

38 9 23

Scrap

.5

9.5

.5

.5

56

72.5

10

.5

15

17

5

.00

.00

0

.00

.00

0

0

Exhibit

1
Modernized Unmodernized
Thin-slab Minimill Integrated Mill
HR CR
Labor $2

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0 0.00 $

2

3 5 23
Scrap $

9 $

8
Man hours / ton 1.

7 2.

6 2.85 4 3.90 5.85
Capacity Utilization 90.00% 75.00%
Operation costs / ton
$

35 $53.00 $67.00 $

10 $91.50 $

14
Ore 51 54 52 56
Coal 37.5 38 4

0.5
Energy 24 9.5 25
100 102 13 19 15
Materials and supplies 72.5 71 93 95.5
Maintenance & repairs 17 26.5 29.5
Total costs / ton $

22 $

283 $

261.5 $

349.00 $

300 $

403
Revenue / ton $

306.5 $

390.5 $

326.00 $

454.50 $

325.00 $

453.00

Summary

71.78

196 196 196

36.62%

CF analysis- thin slab
Original Adj. 1 (price growth rate) Adj. 2 (Operating Cost Growth Rate) Adj. 3 (discount rate decreases)
Year 5 CF: 71.78 104.84 87.26
Year 5 Assets: 196
Year 5 ROA: 36.62% 53.49% 44.52%

CF analysis-thin slab

4.00%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0 0 0

(12A)

0 0 0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

(12A)

0 0 0

0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35

Revenue / ton

306.5

.76

390.5

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

8.12

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

225

283

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

$0.00 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00

$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

30.00

0.00 0.00

71.78

6

)

15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

$0.00 $0.00

Year 5 CF: 71.78

Year 5 Assets:

Year 5 ROA: 36.62%
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%
Thin Slab Minimill
11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel)
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.25
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.175 0.35
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 3

18 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.

16 625.

20
Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 21 226.85 235.92 245.36
76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82
Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09
Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58
Depreciate over 10 years 28.00
Income
22.92 47.67 49.58 51.56 53.62 55.77 58.00 60.32 62.73 65.24
21.16 44.02 45.78 47.61 49.51 51.49 53.55 55.69 57.92 60.24
Total income $0.00 $16.08 $63.69 $67.36 $71.17 $75.14 $79.26 $83.55 $88.01 $92.65 $97.48
Taxes $5.63 $22.29 $23.57 $24.91 $26.30 $27.74 $29.24 $30.80 $32.43 $34.12
Income after taxes $10.45 $41.40 $43.78 $46.26 $48.84 $51.52 $54.31 $57.21 $60.23 $63.36
Add back depreciation $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs
Cash flow -280.00 98.45 69.40 7

4.2 76.84 79.52 82.31 85.21 88.23 91.36
Internal rate of return (

IRR 15%
Discounted cash flow $85.61 $60.35 $62.42 $64.57 $66.82 $69.15 $71.57 $74.09 $76.72 $79.45
Sum of discounted cash flow $710.74
Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5?
196.00

CF analysis-thin slab – Adj #1

Assumptions:

Annual growth rate of price of steel 6.84% 6.84% (historical)

Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%

Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)

0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35

Revenue / ton

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5

Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09

Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58

Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00

Income

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00

Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00

104.84

Internal rate of return (IRR) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00

6

Sum of discounted cash flow

Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 104.84

Year 5 Assets: 196.00

Year 5 ROA: 53.49%
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) – Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A)
327.4646 349.86 373.79 399.36 426.68 455.86 487.04 520.36 5

55.95 593.98 634.60 678.01
417.2102 445.75 476.24 508.81 543.61 580.80 620.52 662.97 708.31 756.76 808.53 863.83
93.45 199.68 213.34 227.93 243.52 260.18 277.97 296.99 317.30 339.01
83.34 178.08 190.26 203.28 217.18 232.04 247.91 264.87 282.98 302.34
30.17 68.07 76.47 85.58 95.48 106.21 117.85 130.46 144.11 158.89
27.63 62.21 69.76 77.95 86.84 96.48 106.93 118.25 130.50 143.76
$29.81 $102.28 $118.22 $135.53 $154.32 $174.70 $196.78 $220.71 $246.61 $274.65
$10.43 $35.80 $41.38 $47.44 $54.01 $61.14 $68.87 $77.25 $86.32 $96.13
$19.37 $66.48 $76.84 $88.10 $100.31 $113.55 $127.91 $143.46 $160.30 $178.52
107.37 94.48 116.10 128.31 141.55 155.91 171.46 188.30 206.52
$93.37 $8

2.1 $91.17 $100.95 $111.57 $123.09 $135.57 $149.10 $163.74 $179.58
$1,230.30

CF analysis-thin slab 1-Adj #2

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)

Annual growth rate of operating costs

Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%

Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35

Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 318.76 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.16 625.20

Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 218.12 226.85 235.92 245.36
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82

Operating costs / ton

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283

Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00

Income

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$91.17

Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00

Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00

87.26

Internal rate of return (IRR) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00

Sum of discounted cash flow

Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 87.26

Year 5 Assets: 196.00

Year 5 ROA: 44.52%
2.00%
229.50 234.09 238.77 243.55 248.42 253.39 258.45 263.62 268.90 274.27 279.76 285.35
288.66 294.43 300.32 306.33 312.45 318.70 325.08 331.58 338.21 344.98 351.87 358.91
59.69 121.77 124.21 126.69 129.23 131.81 134.45 137.14 139.88 142.68
52.56 107.21 109.36 111.55 113.78 116.05 118.37 120.74 123.16 125.62
26.50 57.51 62.24 67.22 72.44 77.92 83.67 89.71 96.04 102.68
24.31 52.68 56.93 61.39 66.08 71.00 76.16 81.57 87.25 93.20
$22.81 $82.18 $100.61 $110.52 $120.92 $131.83 $143.28 $155.29 $167.88
$7.98 $28.76 $31.91 $35.21 $38.68 $42.32 $46.14 $50.15 $54.35 $58.76
$14.83 $53.42 $59.26 $65.40 $71.84 $78.60 $85.69 $93.13 $100.94 $109.12
102.83 81.42 93.40 99.84 106.60 113.69 121.13 128.94 137.12
$89.42 $70.80 $75.88 $81.21 $86.81 $92.69 $98.86 $105.33 $112.12 $119.24
$932.37

CF analysis-thin slab- Adj #3

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%

Discount rate

Thin Slab Minimill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 0 0
Shipments (12A)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0 0 0 0.175 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35

Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 306.5 318.76 331.51 344.77 358.56 372.90 387.82 403.33 419.47 436.25 453.69 471.84 490.72
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 390.5 406.12 422.36 439.26 456.83 475.10 494.11 513.87 534.43 555.80 578.04 601.16 625.20

Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.19 179.28 186.45 193.91 201.67 209.73 218.12 226.85 235.92 245.36
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.87 159.89 166.29 172.94 179.85 187.05 194.53 202.31 210.40 218.82

Operating costs / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 225 234.00 243.36 253.09 263.22 273.75 284.70 296.08 307.93 320.25 333.05 346.38 360.23
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 283 294.32 306.09 318.34 331.07 344.31 358.09 372.41 387.31 402.80 418.91 435.67 453.09

Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.27 131.61 136.87 142.35 148.04 153.96 160.12 166.53 173.19 180.12
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.71 115.87 120.51 125.33 130.34 135.56 140.98 146.62 152.48 158.58

Depreciate over 10 years 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00

Income
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.92 47.67 49.58 51.56 53.62 55.77 58.00 60.32 62.73 65.24
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.16 44.02 45.78 47.61 49.51 51.49 53.55 55.69 57.92 60.24

Total income $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $16.08 $63.69 $67.36 $71.17 $75.14 $79.26 $83.55 $88.01 $92.65 $97.48

Taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.63 $22.29 $23.57 $24.91 $26.30 $27.74 $29.24 $30.80 $32.43 $34.12
Income after taxes $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10.45 $41.40 $43.78 $46.26 $48.84 $51.52 $54.31 $57.21 $60.23 $63.36
Add back depreciation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00
Subtract capital expenditures -$280.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Subtract startup costs 30.00
Subtract working capital costs 30.00

Cash flow -280.00 0.00 0.00 98.45 69.40 71.78 74.26 76.84 79.52 82.31 85.21 88.23 91.36

Internal rate of return (IRR)

10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

Discounted cash flow $0.00 $0.00

Sum of discounted cash flow

Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 71.78
Year 5 Assets: 196.00

Year 5 ROA: 36.62%

10.00%
10%
$89.50 $63.09 $65.26 $67.51 $69.85 $72.29 $74.83 $77.46 $80.21 $83.06
$743.05

CF analysis – Modernize

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

Shipments (12A)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12A) 0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12A) 0

1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35

Revenue / ton

326.00

454.50

Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00

Operating costs / ton

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 261.50

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 349.00

Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00

0

74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92

Income

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00

Total income

Taxes 74.92

Add back depreciation 0 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92
Subtract capital expenditures

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash flow -1,873 214.07

Internal rate of return (IRR)

Discounted cash flow

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Sum of discounted cash flow

Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 245.97
Year 5 Assets:

Year 5 ROA:

Modernized integrated mill
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1.35
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 339.04 352.60 366.71 381.37 396.63 412.49 428.99 446.15 464.00 482.56 501.86 521.94 542.81 564.53 587.11 610.59 635.02 660.42 686.83 714.31 742.88 772.59 803.50 835.64 869.06
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 472.68 491.59 511.25 531.70 552.97 575.09 598.09 622.01 646.90 672.77 699.68 727.67 756.78 787.05 818.53 851.27 885.32 920.73 957.56 995.87 1035.70 1077.13 1120.21 1165.02 1211.62
711.98 740.46 770.08 800.89 832.92 866.24 900.89 936.92 974.40 1013.38 1053.91 1096.07 1139.91 1185.51 1232.93 1282.24 1333.53 1386.87 1442.35 1500.04 1560.04 1622.45 1687.34 1754.84 1825.03
638.12 663.64 690.19 717.80 746.51 776.37 807.42 839.72 873.31 908.24 944.57 982.35 1021.65 1062.51 1105.01 1149.21 1195.18 1242.99 1292.71 1344.42 1398.20 1454.12 1512.29 1572.78 1635.69
271.96 282.84 294.15 305.92 318.15 330.88 344.12 357.88 372.20 387.08 402.57 418.67 435.42 452.83 470.95 489.78 509.38 529.75 550.94 572.98 595.90 619.73 644.52 670.30 697.12
362.96 377.48 392.58 408.28 424.61 441.60 459.26 477.63 496.74 516.61 537.27 558.76 581.11 604.36 628.53 653.67 679.82 707.01 735.29 764.70 795.29 827.10 860.19 894.59 930.38
571.12 593.96 617.72 642.43 668.12 694.85 722.64 751.55 781.61 812.88 845.39 879.21 914.38 950.95 988.99 1028.55 1069.69 1112.48 1156.98 1203.26 1251.39 1301.44 1353.50 1407.64 1463.94
490.00 509.60 529.98 551.18 573.23 596.16 620.00 644.80 670.59 697.42 725.31 754.33 784.50 815.88 848.51 882.46 917.75 954.46 992.64 1032.35 1073.64 1116.59 1161.25 1207.70 1256.01
Depreciate over 25 years 74.92
140.87 146.50 152.36 158.46 164.80 171.39 178.24 185.37 192.79 200.50 208.52 216.86 225.53 234.56 243.94 253.70 263.84 274.40 285.37 296.79 308.66 321.01 333.85 347.20 361.09
148.12 154.05 160.21 166.62 173.28 180.21 187.42 194.92 202.72 210.82 219.26 228.03 237.15 246.63 256.50 266.76 277.43 288.53 300.07 312.07 324.55 337.54 351.04 365.08 379.68
214.07 225.63 237.65 250.15 263.16 276.68 290.74 305.37 320.58 336.40 352.86 369.97 387.76 406.27 425.52 445.53 466.35 488.00 510.52 533.94 558.29 583.62 609.96 637.36 665.85
78.97 83.18 87.55 92.11 96.84 101.76 106.88 112.20 117.74 123.50 129.49 135.72 142.19 148.93 155.94 163.22 170.80 178.68 186.88 195.40 204.27 213.49 223.08 233.05
Income after Taxes 139.15 146.66 154.47 162.60 171.05 179.84 188.98 198.49 208.38 218.66 229.36 240.48 252.05 264.08 276.59 289.60 303.13 317.20 331.84 347.06 362.89 379.35 396.48 414.28 432.80
-1,873
221.58 229.39 237.52 245.97 254.76 263.90 273.41 283.30 293.58 304.28 315.40 326.97 339.00 351.51 364.52 378.05 392.12 406.76 421.98 437.81 454.27 471.40 489.20 507.72
14%
-$1,8

73.00 $186.14 $192.68 $199.47 $206.54 $213.89 $221.53 $229.48 $237.75 $246.35 $255.29 $264.59 $274.26 $284.32 $294.78 $305.66 $316.97 $328.74 $340.98 $353.70 $366.94 $380.70 $395.02 $409.91 $425.39 $441.50
n years
$5,499.58
1498.4
16.42% 0.3283133027

CF analysis – Unmodernized

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0

1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0

1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08

Revenue / ton

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 325.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 453.00

Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 508.81

Operating costs / ton

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 300

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 403

Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Income

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

47.24

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00

Total income 0.00 99.84

Taxes 0

55.95

68.07

73.00

Add back depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtract capital expenditures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow 0 64.90 67.49 70.19 73.00 75.92 78.96 82.11 85.40 88.81 92.37 96.06 99.90 103.90 108.06 112.38 116.87 121.55 126.41 131.47 136.73 142.20 147.88 153.80 159.95 166.35
IRR
Discounted cash flow $0.00

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sum of discounted cash flow

Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 75.92
Year 5 Assets: 0.00
Year 5 ROA:

Unmodernized integrated mill
Shipments (12A)
1.68
1.08
338.00 351.52 365.58 380.20 395.41 411.23 427.68 444.78 462.58 481.08 500.32 520.34 541.15 562.79 585.31 608.72 633.07 658.39 684.73 712.12 740.60 770.22 801.03 833.07 866.40
471.12 489.96 509.56 529.95 551.14 573.19 596.12 619.96 644.76 670.55 697.37 725.27 754.28 784.45 815.83 848.46 882.40 917.69 954.40 992.58 1032.28 1073.57 1116.52 1161.18 1207.62
567.84 590.55 614.18 638.74 664.29 690.86 718.50 7

47.24 777.13 808.21 840.54 874.16 909.13 945.50 983.32 1022.65 1063.55 1106.10 1150.34 1196.35 1244.21 1293.98 1345.73 1399.56 1455.55
529.16 550.33 572.34 595.24 619.04 643.81 669.56 696.34 724.19 753.16 783.29 814.62 847.21 881.09 916.34 952.99 991.11 1030.75 1071.99 1114.86 1159.46 1205.84 1254.07 1304.23
312.00 324.48 337.46 350.96 365.00 379.60 394.78 410.57 426.99 444.07 461.84 480.31 499.52 519.50 540.28 561.89 584.37 607.74 632.05 657.34 683.63 710.98 739.41 768.99 799.75
419.12 435.88 453.32 471.45 490.31 509.92 530.32 551.53 573.59 596.54 620.40 645.22 671.02 697.87 725.78 754.81 785.00 816.40 849.06 883.02 918.34 955.08 993.28 1033.01 1074.33
524.16 545.13 566.93 589.61 613.19 637.72 663.23 689.76 717.35 746.04 775.88 806.92 839.20 872.76 907.68 943.98 981.74 1021.01 1061.85 1104.33 1148.50 1194.44 1242.22 1291.91 1343.58
452.65 470.76 489.59 509.17 529.54 550.72 572.75 595.66 619.48 644.26 670.03 696.83 724.71 753.69 783.84 815.20 847.80 881.72 916.99 953.66 991.81 1031.48 1072.74 1115.65 1160.28
Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.)
43.68 45.43 49.13 51.10 53.14 55.27 57.48 59.78 62.17 64.66 67.24 69.93 72.73 75.64 78.67 81.81 85.08 88.49 92.03 95.71 99.54 103.52 107.66 111.97
56.16 58.41 60.74 63.17 65.70 68.33 71.06 73.90 76.86 79.93 83.13 86.46 89.91 93.51 97.25 101.14 105.19 109.39 113.77 118.32 123.05 127.98 133.09 138.42 143.96
103.83 107.99 112.31 116.80 121.47 126.33 131.38 136.64 142.10 147.79 153.70 159.85 166.24 172.89 179.81 187.00 194.48 202.26 210.35 218.76 227.51 236.61 246.08 255.92
34.94 36.34 37.80 39.31 40.88 42.51 44.22 45.98 47.82 49.74 51.73 53.79 58.18 60.51 62.93 65.45 70.79 73.62 76.57 79.63 82.81 86.13 89.57
Total Income after Tax 64.90 67.49 70.19 75.92 78.96 82.11 85.40 88.81 92.37 96.06 99.90 103.90 108.06 112.38 116.87 121.55 126.41 131.47 136.73 142.20 147.88 153.80 159.95 166.35
$56.43 $58.69 $61.04 $63.48 $66.02 $68.66 $71.40 $74.26 $77.23 $80.32 $83.53 $86.87 $90.35 $93.96 $97.72 $101.63 $105.69 $109.92 $114.32 $118.89 $123.65 $128.59 $133.74 $139.09 $144.65
$2,350.13
N/A

CF analysis – Formerly Unmodern

Assumptions:
Annual growth rate of price of steel 4.00% 6.84% (historical)
Annual growth rate of operating costs 4.00%
Tax rate 35.00%
Discount rate 15.00%

Unmodernized integrated mill
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Capacity(million of tons of steel) 0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Shipments (12A)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35

Revenue / ton
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 325.00 338.00 351.52 365.58 380.20 395.41 411.23 427.68 444.78 462.58 481.08 500.32 520.34 541.15 562.79 585.31 608.72 633.07 658.39 684.73 712.12 740.60 770.22 801.03 833.07 866.40
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 453.00 471.12 489.96 509.56 529.95 551.14 573.19 596.12 619.96 644.76 670.55 697.37 725.27 754.28 784.45 815.83 848.46 882.40 917.69 954.40 992.58 1032.28 1073.57 1116.52 1161.18 1207.62

Total revenue (shipment*rev/ton)

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00

Operating costs / ton

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) (12B) 261.5 271.96 282.84 294.15 305.92 318.15 330.88 344.12 357.88 372.20 387.08 402.57 418.67 435.42 452.83 470.95 489.78 509.38 529.75 550.94 572.98 595.90 619.73 644.52 670.30 697.12
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) (12B) 349.00 362.96 377.48 392.58 408.28 424.61 441.60 459.26 477.63 496.74 516.61 537.27 558.76 581.11 604.36 628.53 653.67 679.82 707.01 735.29 764.70 795.29 827.10 860.19 894.59 930.38

Total operating costs(shipment*cost/ton)
– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00 571.12 593.96 617.72 642.43 668.12 694.85 722.64 751.55 781.61 812.88 845.39 879.21 914.38 950.95 988.99 1028.55 1069.69 1112.48 1156.98 1203.26 1251.39 1301.44 1353.50 1407.64 1463.94
– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00 490.00 509.60 529.98 551.18 573.23 596.16 620.00 644.80 670.59 697.42 725.31 754.33 784.50 815.88 848.51 882.46 917.75 954.46 992.64 1032.35 1073.64 1116.59 1161.25 1207.70 1256.01

Depreciate over 25 years (no expenditure to dep.) 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92

Income

– Hot-rolled sheets (HR) 0.00

– Cold-rolled sheets (CR) 0.00

Total income 0.00 284.70

307.93 320.25

346.38

Taxes 0

Total Income after Tax

243.52

Add back depreciation 0 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92 74.92

Subtract capital expenditures

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash flow -1873

300.07

IRR

Discounted cash flow

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Sum of discounted cash flow

Investment criterion: 25% ROA by year 5? Year 5 CF: 291.41
Year 5 Assets:

Year 5 ROA:

709.80 738.19 767.72 798.43 830.37 863.58 898.12 934.05 971.41 1010.27 1050.68 1092.70 1136.41 1181.87 1229.14 1278.31 1329.44 1382.62 1437.92 1495.44 1555.26 1617.47 1682.17 1749.46 1819.43
636.01 661.45 687.91 715.43 744.04 773.81 804.76 836.95 870.43 905.24 941.45 979.11 1018.28 1059.01 1101.37 1145.42 1191.24 1238.89 1288.44 1339.98 1393.58 1449.32 1507.30 1567.59 1630.29
138.68 144.23 150.00 156.00 162.24 168.73 175.48 182.50 189.80 197.39 205.29 213.50 222.04 230.92 240.16 249.76 259.75 270.14 280.95 292.19 303.87 316.03 328.67 341.82 355.49
146.02 151.86 157.93 164.25 170.82 177.65 184.76 192.15 199.83 207.83 216.14 224.78 233.78 243.13 252.85 262.97 273.49 284.42 295.80 307.63 319.94 332.74 346.05 359.89 374.28
296.09 333.06 360.24 374.65 389.63 405.22 421.43 438.28 455.81 474.05 493.01 512.73 533.24 554.57 576.75 599.82 623.81 648.77 674.72 701.70 729.77
99.65 103.63 107.78 112.09 116.57 121.23 126.08 131.13 136.37 141.83 147.50 153.40 159.53 165.92 172.55 179.46 186.63 194.10 201.86 209.94 218.33 227.07 236.15 245.60 255.42
185.06 192.46 200.16 208.16 216.49 225.15 234.15 253.26 263.39 273.93 284.88 296.28 308.13 320.46 333.27 346.60 360.47 374.89 389.88 405.48 421.70 438.57 456.11 474.35
-1873
259.98 267.38 275.08 283.08 291.41 309.07 318.44 328.18 338.31 348.85 359.80 371.20 383.05 395.38 408.19 421.52 435.39 449.81 464.80 480.40 496.62 513.49 531.03 549.27
16%
-$1,628.70 $226.07 $232.50 $239.20 $246.16 $253.40 $260.93 $268.76 $276.90 $285.37 $294.18 $303.34 $312.87 $322.78 $333.09 $343.80 $354.95 $366.54 $378.60 $391.14 $404.18 $417.74 $431.84 $446.51 $461.76 $477.63
$6,701.55
1,498.40
0.1944795621

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