International Relations in a Carbon-less World

Option 4. International Relations in a Carbon-less World

Paper is due: see the syllabus. Submit electronically

Imagine that affordable alternative energy sources have finally emerged and fossil fuel such as oil and coil have become too expensive and thus almost obsolete. How could these changes affect the United States’ foreign policy and international relations? As an expert in international energy policies prepare a policy brief to the U.S. Congress. What is a policy brief? In general terms, this is a relatively short summary of an expert’s opinion (or several expert’s views) on a specific issue that has or may have implications on a country’s security, economic, or political situation. A policy brief usually offers a forecast and discusses the government’s policy options to deal with the issue in focus. Some suggestions on the best option are offered as well. Policy briefs are either solicited or offered to government policymakers and others who are interested in formulating or influencing policy (foreign policy in our case). In your brief, discuss the following:

· How plausible is it that affordable alternative energy sources finally emerge and ready for distribution in 5 years? In 10 years? Later? Explain your view. (1 point or 10% of the grade)

· Assume that that affordable alternative energy sources appear in several years. Which country or countries could be the biggest producers of such sources? Could it be China producing solar panels? Or maybe Brazil with its ethanol fuel? Could it be the United State or the European Union? Or maybe other countries? (10% of the grade)

· If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global energy market, how will this new development affect:

1. (1)  Washington’s policies toward Saudi Arabia?

2. (2)  Washington’s policies toward other oil-producing countries?

3. (3)  Washington policies toward China and China’s foreign policy?

4. (4)  European Union’s and the United States’ policies toward Russia?

(4 points or 40% of the grade)

· If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global market, how this will affect international relations in general? Will the new situation reduce or widen the North-South gap? Will regional conflicts increase or decrease? Will new international alliances (security, political, or economic) emerge and which ones? Discuss you opinions (40% of the grade)

· Overall conclusion: Discuss the key implications for the US foreign policy in a carbon-less world (10% of the grade)

Suggested length: 2,900 words

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Running head: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN A CARBON-LESS WORLD 1

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN A CARBON-LESS WORLD 12

International Relations in a Carbon-less World

Draft (2)

How will the emergence of alternative energy sources affect the United States’ foreign policy and international relations?

The emergence of the alternative sources of energy will greatly affect the U.S foreign policy and the international relations, especially if the clean energy mechanisms or the sources do not come from the United States. Since the United States in the world leading producer of the oil products it will automatically loss greatly its market for its products. The alternative sources of energy may be a new threat to the production of oil and its products in the United States economy (Lawson, 2015).  This will mean that U.S will not be in a position to sell their oil products to the other countries in the world, which will influence the foreign policies on the aid getting countries.

It is through the sale of oil and its products, that U.S is able to help other less developed countries, but if there is an emergence of other sources of energy, then the U.S will miss the market for its products, which will later, effect on other foreign policies, signed treaties and even weaken the relationship with the other countries that greatly depend on U.S. U.S is the leading countries in fostering the foreign policies, but once its economy will be affected, it will equally impact other economies leading to a decline in foreign aid and other related sources of help that other countries dependent on U.S get, thus affecting its relationships with those countries (Rowlands, & Greene, 2012). 

A Policy Brief to the U.S. Congress

As a policy expert, I would advise the U.S. Congress to act on the loopholes that may be at a position to affect their economy greatly, by advancing on the mechanisms to improve on the oil production and make the oil clean for use. Oil is the leading pollutant product in the world, and it needs a lot of innovations to be improved. Many countries like the European Union are running for the clean energy technologies in order to reduce the emission into the world and combat the impacts of climate change. And therefore, U.S may be on the losing end if they do not act on their production mechanism to move from the oil pollutant to improved products that are clean and cost effective in nature.

To improve on the production, they should advance on their innovation that could yield at producing a motor vehicle that use oil and its products, but with high level mechanisms of not producing sooth that pollutes the environment (Snow, 2020).  For a country that is reach of oil, and oil is their main economic factor that contributes to the development of their GDP, they need to improve on other mechanisms that will lead to oil being between the clean energy mechanisms, and at a low and affordable cost. Alternative energy like solar energy, and wind may be expensive to tap until they meet the needs that are met by oil and petroleum, so it is important for U.S to improve on its products from pollutants to clean energy.

Implications on a country’s security, economic, or political situation

If the clean, or the alternative energy mechanisms picks into the global market, then the U.S economy will be on the losing end, as their products will not yield them any economic benefit, which will lead to a decline in the Gross Domestic Product, as the markets for oil will have been reduced. On the other hand, how effective and sustainable can be the alternative energy source, this is what can cause another security and political tension to the country or the continent that will be the first to adopt fully and sustainable means (Falkner, 2016). This will lead to cold war between the states, for example as it is a scenario with the nuclear producing countries, which may yield to the third world war.

Economies in the world are at the competition state, especially for the U.S and China and any other country that may be rising to the super power league, through the economic development of their economic, many developed countries are fighting to overturn U.S from being the Super power country, which is yielding to other security and political concerns in the world. Therefore, the emergence of alternative sources of energy may be a cause of disputes among the developed countries.

How plausible is it that affordable alternative energy sources finally emerge and ready for distribution in 5 years? In 10 years? Later?

Depending on the current status of the economies, the concept of alternative energy sources is a blue print in many governments, and in the next 5 or 10 years, this idea still remains to be a dream to many nations. The global economies are yearning to have clean or alternative energy sources that are sustainable in nature, but the costs that are associated to bringing the sources into a practical form are such expensive that most of the countries may not meet at the expense of the state of the economies. Tapping alternative energies are provision to be so expensive than using the readily available sources in the market, which has been a discouraging factor to many nations (Lawson, 2015). 

Looking into the example of generating electricity through the solar panels, the climate is not favourable and promising, especially on the fluctuating weather patterns that may not support the projects. Many nations and companies are finding it hard to depend on the solar energy as a main source of electricity which is making it so difficulty to realize the agenda of the alternative energy sources in the next 5 or 10 years. I believe that the idea can be reached at, if only we accept to transform to clean energy mechanisms and heavily invest in the projects at the expense of saving our world for future generations.

European Union as the leading in Alternative Energy Production

The European Union is proving to the leading nations in the adoption of the alternative energy sources. Leading scientists are calling on the European Union and its Member States to make an obligation to solar-powered development. Recently, in International meeting by European Science Foundation they came up with a solution to convert solar energy into fuels (EFS) (Rowlands, & Greene, 2012).  At this conference, recommended investment in these technologies for an interdisciplinary task force was set up.

Fossil fuels are decreasing, while the expectation of the global annual energy is to increase by at least dual from its current level, and will in any event, emit unsustainable levels of carbon dioxide, with global warming. Apart from solar energy, only renewable energies such as wind, other non-fossil, non-renewable energy sources, and nuclear energy, will make up the deficit. But they will not be able to meet the projected increased energy needs, fully supernumerary fossil fuels, except for the production of electricity. Another issue is that stored fuels are not readily produced. Without an unforeseeable breakthrough in electricity storages, about 70 percent of total global energy requirements would continue to need fuels (Snow, 2020).  At present, electricity only accounts for 30 percent of worldwide energy consumption.

If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global energy market, how will this new development affect:

i. Washington’s policies toward Saudi Arabia?

In the scope that the new developments come up, and oil no longer becomes the top commodity, this will directly impact the relationship between Washington and Saudi Arabia, as the oil business is in direct benefit of the two countries as they will be at the position to meet their individual interests. The U.S administration for a long period of time has been on the lead to support Saudi Arabia, especially Trump has never failed to state what he sees as the true basis for the relationship between Washington and the Gulf A state (Falkner, 2016). 

We defend Saudi Arabia,” he asserted in a speech to his supporters in Southaven, Mississippi in October 2018.” “You would say they are rich. And I, King Salman, love the king. But I said ‘King, we are protecting you, you may not be there without us for two weeks, you have to pay for your military.’ Whether it’s real or not, this statement demonstrates that Trump considers US foreign relations as a security racket system that offers a product that can be withdrawn to weaker customers whenever the stronger party is done or feels unhappy with the contract.

ii. Washington’s policies toward other oil-producing countries?

In regard to the trends in oil production in the world. Washington is on the diminishing end, and it is likely to advocate for the clean energy mechanisms. This is directly into their benefit, by investing into the alternative sources of energy. Hence, the Washington policies toward the other oil producing countries may not be effective due to high level of production from the outside sources. Washington is on the high demand of the oil, which may be a determinant factor in affecting the prices of the oil in other countries, but due to the new developments in alternative energies, the policies may not have impact on the other oil producing countries, as alternative sources may be at a position to suppress the available oil sources (Rowlands, & Greene, 2012). 

iii. Washington policies toward China and China’s foreign policy?

The oil strategy still faces many domestic and external uncertainties within the general context of China’s rising energy requirements. These uncertainties are primarily related to China’s future economic performance domestically (Troush, 2017). Externally, the potential developments of the future energy market, the price of oil and gas, the general atmosphere of international relations are affecting these uncertainties.

iv. European Union’s and the United States’ policies toward Russia?

European and German interests are adversely impacted by the increased use of economic instruments of influence in US policy towards Russia. The current debate on the currently under construction Nord Stream 2 pipeline has lost sight of the fact that this sanctions policy has a considerable effect on the energy ties between Europe and Russia. Not only was this project criticized in the European Union and Germany, but also in Washington. The US government is seeking ways and means to avoid the completion of this initiative.

Back in the 1960s and 1980s, with a combination of rewards and pressure on their European allies, US administrations attempted to prevent the construction of Russian pipelines passing through Ukraine today. Since 2015, with its high political costs, the Nord Stream 2 project has provided the German government with the question of how legal values, economic interests and international and European policy paradigms can be reconciled (Falkner, 2016).  At the same time, US sanctions are seriously restricting Germany and Europe’s willingness to take an autonomous action. This challenges not only EU energy policy cohesion, but also energy protection in terms of supplying a competitive, secure and scalable supply of energy on demand.

If oil no longer is a top commodity on the global market, how this will affect international relations in general?

Since oil is not a top commodity on the global market, the relations on many countries will end, especially those that were heavily dependent on one another for the oil products. Businesses will be reduced and economies will run to strike new deals with the alternative sources of energies that may come up. Countries will run for their safety has they will break the patterns of the previous relationships that was created by the oil products being the main business agenda (Rowlands, & Greene, 2012).  The international relations will drop and other countries will form new line of relations that will lead to an economic regress in other nations.

The change in the patterns of the international relations will yield to economic crisis to the super power nations depending on how innovative they may become towards adopting the new developments as far as alternative energy sources are concerned. On the other hand, a good relationship and networks will be created to foster the development of the alternative sources of energy. Since, the world is on a trading mood, the oil markets will elapse and new markets will rise to create new links ad new developments, furthermore, friendlier and conveniently as compared to the oil trade relationships.

Will the new situation reduce or widen the North-South gap?

The new situation, depending on the scarcity of oil in the globe especially in the oil producing countries, the resultant impact is that there will be end of relationships and contracts and deals. This will eventually lead to the reduce gas between the north and the south, as the people and the merchant from the north will be turning their backs to the people from the south, in order to explore the new opportunities and business deals. The scarcity of oil from the north will humble the wealthy merchants to find better options to the south, especially to the oil producing countries or the energy potential countries.

On the other end, the new situation is likely to widen the gap between the North and the South, as those from North will want to run to exploit those from the South. Competition of resources, for a long time has been a source of conflict between nations or states (Falkner, 2016).  This is likely to be the case for the new situation that is expected to occur after the oil resources get scarce to the leading oil procuring countries. The developing countries will feel the pinch most, as the developed countries would want to exploit their resources most, which will be the source of widening the gap between the North and the South.

Will regional conflicts increase or decrease?

The regional conflicts will most likely increase because the new developments will be a threat to other nations, as most of the nations will be fighting for superiority and becoming the most advanced country in the world. A scenario of reference can be attributed to the current relationship between U.S and China. The two nations are on a rapid scale of technological advancement competition that has increased the conflicts between the two nations, as the U.S is fighting to hold the position of being a super-power country and China rapidly developing to the standards of overtaking U.S from being a super power. Such indifferences and fear of uncertainty are the ones that are increasing the conflicts between one another. Besides, these are contributions that are supported by oil production and advancement in technology on weaponry and security status (Lawson, 2015). 

Will new international alliances (security, political, or economic) emerge and which ones?

New challenges have led to new alliances, particularly when an old hegemony is in decline and the young hegemonic challenger needs allies to hold back. In the run-up to a possible WW3 from 2025 onwards, I tried to imagine what the new alliance structure will look like. For China, the risk is that its bullying serves as a trigger for uniting nations against it (Kaidan, 2020). Where Beijing could choose countries one by one if the so-called Five Eyes alliance of nations – the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand – joined hands with other democracies, such as India, South Korea, Japan, and other nations, such as Vietnam or Malaysia, to fight back against China, it could be more limited (Landale, 2020)

Russia will be drawn to the possibility of closer relations with China as it moves away from alignment with Europe and aggressively against the US. The countries do have complementary profiles, but there is a great mutual mistrust between these two nations. One is long on individuals and low on money, the other the exact opposite. There are centralized governments in both countries and a tradition of deep political relations. Only an increasing Russian relationship with Germany could offset Russia’s lure of China (Rowlands, & Greene, 2012).

Discuss the key implications for the US foreign policy in a carbon-less world

The threat to global affairs, international security, and American foreign policy raised by climate change occurs at a time when the view of the United States’ position in the world is unclear. The post-war liberal order that the U.S. established from the bombed ruins of Europe and East Asia has crashed, at home repudiated and overseas disgraced (Falkner, 2016). Without a clear agenda, and with an understaffed executive branch, Trump appeared to be running his foreign policy on instinct. Between nostalgia for Obama’s “Empire Lite” and fervent calls to abolish ICE, Feckless Democrats waffle. Meanwhile, on the horizon, bruise-colored clouds are huge, and the first drops of rain are flickering over our faces.

Climate-centric foreign policy will also require foreign policy actors to consider the climate change effects of their decisions and decide if there are less detrimental approaches. For example, for many years, U.S. foreign policy has been aimed at restoring Iraq’s struggling economy by helping the country improve its oil output, and also by increasing gas production to fix its persistent and politically destabilizing electricity shortages (Falkner, 2016). In addition to offering assistance to limit flaring, and the use of coal, a climate-centric foreign policy will also seek ways to attract investment in renewable energy.

References

Falkner, R. (2016). The handbook of global climate and environment policy. Chichester, West Sussex: Wiley Blackwell.

Kaidan, M. (2020, October 26). WW3: China and Russia hint at new MOST POWERFUL military alliance EVER set to destroy US. Retrieved from

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1352216/world-war-3-china-news-russia-vladimir-putin-donald-trump-us-army-xi-jinping-ont

Landale, J. (2020, July 12). UK Huawei decision part of wider strategic tensions with China. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53366301

Lawson, S. (2015). Theories of international relations: Contending approaches to world politics. Place of publication not identified: Polity Press.

Rowlands, I. H., & Greene, M. (2012). Global Environmental Change and International Relations. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK: Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan.

Snow, D. M. (2020). Cases in International Relations: Principles and Applications. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Troush, S. (2017, May 10). China’s Changing Oil Strategy and its Foreign Policy Implications. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/chinas-changing-oil-strategy-and-its-foreign-policy-implications/